We’re going to wrap up the weekend with some MLB betting model picks, focusing on positive expected value (+EV). This strategy is all about building long-term success, but it is long-term — so don’t get too down about our lack of a home run hit in the last week. For today, we have a promising strikeout bet among our MLB player props. If you’re looking for more +EV MLB betting tools, sign up for OddsShopper with the promo code POSITIVE to get 50% off!
MLB Player Prop Today: Sunday, July 28
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Carlos Rodon
There is quite a lot of time for the line to move on this prop since it’s the Yankees-Red Sox Sunday Night Baseball — and move it will.
We have the true odds (how breakeven percentages manifest in our MLB betting model) at -168, well behind the -150 BetMGM has right now. That is leading to this bet earning positive expected value (+EV) of 4.5% and an OS Rating of 9. At this time of the sports season, that is about as good an OS Rating as we will find.
As a reference point, this year strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 9 or better are 335-242 and they are producing 13.9% return on investment. So in essence, if you tailed these bets at our recommended bet sizes all year across all sportsbooks, you would be up $17,220!
For this one we prefer a $23 bet size on the 63% expected win rate.
OK, now that you understand how strong the market value is here, we can dig into a few baseball numbers. Rodon has been a volatile pitcher this year — he’s striking out hitters at a solid clip of 9.6 per nine, but also is below average in ERA+ and is allowing a .210 ISO to all hitters, which is elite. That’s bad news against a Red Sox team that has a top-5 ISO and hard-hit rate.
Boston does strike out above average, but Rodon has failed to finish the fifth inning in three of his last six starts and has only cleared 7.5 five times all year in 21 chances. His line has jumped to 7.5 after he fanned 10 last time out; his median outing, however, is six strikeouts.
Again, the most important thing here is the market, which will certainly agree with our data as the day progresses. Get in now while the BetMGM odds still have this +EV!
MLB Betting Model Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150 at BetMGM)
