Isaiah’s picks split 1-1 yesterday, cashing the Yoshinobu Yamamoto under without a sweat, but we didn’t get a Gunnar Henderson home run. We’ll try to connect on a home run prop today and cash in a few others. Find your favorite chair, spot on the couch or a shady spot for the hammock on this Father’s Day Sunday and lock in a few player props before we enjoy a few cold beverages. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Sunday, June 16.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Sunday, June 16
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jameson Taillon
The Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals in a division rivalry matinee at Wrigley Field. Jameson Taillon will face a Cardinals lineup featuring a handful of guys that have knocked him around historically. He registered decent outings in each of his last two starts, but those came against the strikeout-happy Rays and the hapless White Sox, creating a sell-high opportunity for bettors.
Taillon’s strikeout prop is listed at 4.5, a number he’s topped in each of his last two starts. However, he hasn’t reached five strikeouts in any of his four starts prior. Taillon ranks 158th among qualified MLB pitchers in strikeout rate at 16.9% and 186th among qualified pitchers swinging-strike rate with a meager 8.1%. To put it simply, he doesn’t miss bats.
In his last start against the Cardinals, Taillon registered just three whiffs on 105 pitches, and posted only three punchouts. The St. Louis Cardinals aren’t a huge strikeout-prone team either, ranking 15th in total strikeouts (584) and 16th in total strikeouts against right-handed pitchers (430).
The under 4.5 is posted between -114 and -145, while the OddsShopper market-based MLB betting model has the true odds listed at -125, creating positive expected value (+EV) on BetRivers.
The model has identified 1,613 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 1 or better at least two hours before game start. A whopping 906 of those bets won, returning a 10.3% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-114 at BetRivers)
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Brandon Lowe
The Tampa Bay Rays are looking to avoid a weekend sweep in their last game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on Sunday afternoon. Rookie righty Hurston Waldrep is making his second career start after getting knocked around by the Washington Nationals in his debut earlier this week. Waldrep was touched up for seven earned runs in 3.2 innings, including a home run off a 96 mph fastball by Keibert Ruiz. Waldrep struggled to miss bats, with just one whiff on his fastball in his first start, and that plays into Brandon Lowe‘s skill set.
Rays left-handed second baseman Brandon Lowe is the best pick for a home run on Sunday afternoon, facing off against Waldrep with the Truist Park short porch and right field Chop House calling his name. Lowe ranks in the 85th percentile in MLB with a 13.0% barrel rate per batted ball event and a 37.7% launch-angle sweet-spot percentage, according to Baseball Savant.
With odds listed as low as +250 on some books, Lowe has tremendous value on FanDuel, where he’s listed to hit a home run at +420. Bettors can tap into his total bases prop as well, wagering over 1.5 total bases for +115. Though there are some pinch-hit concerns with his platoon split, those are mitigated with Jose Caballero being listed as day-to-day and possibly needing a day off to nurse a minor injury.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Brandon Lowe (+420 at FanDuel)
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Lane Thomas
The Washington Nationals will look to finish off a sweep of the Miami Marlins on Sunday afternoon, and Lane Thomas lines up against one of his favorite pitchers – Jesus Luzardo. Thomas has batted 7-for-16 against Luzardo in his career, including a double and three home runs. Thomas has also been red hot the past week, hitting 10-for-26 (.385) in his last seven games and home runs in each of his last two games.
Though his home run prop is certainly appealing, listed as high as +480 on FanDuel, we’re looking at his stolen base prop today. Thomas has been extremely active on the basepaths but less so this month, with just one stolen base in June. He has shown a tendency to run though, swiping 16 bags in 20 attempts on the year. On Sunday, Thomas will face off against a battery of Luzardo and Nick Fortes, an uninspiring pair in the run game.
Despite being left-handed, Luzardo has been allowing runners to get pretty good jumps against him this season. Fortes ranks as a league-average catcher against the running game, with a 1.95 pop time and a 23% caught-stealing percentage. His defense has improved from last year, but it isn’t enough to keep me away from Thomas’ stolen base prop today.
Thomas comes in at +340 to steal a base on DraftKings, making him one of the best plays of the day. Based on his prior success against Luzardo, we can expect him to reach base and hope that when he does there’s a base open in front of him. Hopefully this Father’s Day, we get to cash in on “Life in the Fast Lane.”
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Lane Thomas over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+340 at DraftKings)
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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