We only hit one of our two MLB bets yesterday, but OddsShopper’s MLB betting model is still killing it this MLB season! For Sunday, we’re rolling with it again to try to grab a 2-for-2 day. We have two MLB player prop picks for tonight, one home run pick and one bet from OddsShopper’s MLB betting model. And if you are looking for profitable MLB betting tools, you get week or month for 50% off… keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Sunday, June 23
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Bet Today: Ty France
As of writing, there are only two +EV betting opportunities for home runs, and only one player’s home run bet is over 1% EV: Ty France. His +800 odds are available at both Fanatics and Caesars Sportsbooks, so you do have a couple options for cashing this one in.
The downside of playing France is the OddsShopper expected win percentage of just 11%, which is the lower end of bettable home run plays. After all, France only has seven home runs on the season, none of which have come in the month of June.
France is also slugging a subpar .377 against right-handed pitching and just .356 on the road, and the Mariners are in Miami taking on righty Kyle Tyler.
But we play the market, not just the chances of a bet hitting. Sure, +800 is longer than we usually recommend for a home run bet — it’s a real swing for the fences, so to speak.
The +800 odds give us some value, however, and the recommended bet size $1 from OddsShopper’s MLB betting model tells us this is just a sprinkle. We’re not putting any significant portion of bank roll on +800 odds.
The True Odds in the model have this at +790, though, so we are taking this sprinkle as suggested. Remember, just because France may end up not going deep today does not make this a bad bet. Long-term, +EV opportunities prove to be profitable, so don’t be discouraged by short-term losses.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Ty France to Hit a Home Run (+800 at Caesars)
For the best price currently available, check out our Ty France live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Paul Skenes
Peep that EV age — these odds could change soon and lose its value, but right now Skenes under 7.5 strikeouts is blowing up in the OddsShopper MLB betting model. Again, don’t get turned off by the win percentage dipping below 50% — with the +120 odds at Fanatics, this isn’t just a sprinkle situation like the home run bet. We are hammering this one.
Skenes has been as advertised this year, averaging 12.1 strikeouts per nine inning and fanning 34.4%. Both are elite of the elite among MLB starters.
Plus, the Rays are drastically underperforming expectations, ranking below average in virtually every advanced metric.
That said, those 12.1 strikeouts per nine for Skenes have led to 7.6 strikeouts per start since he is going about 5.2 innings on average. As a result, he is only 4-for-7 on over 7.5 strikeouts — which is very good, but not a lock.
So what we’re seeing 49% on expected win rate for Skenes under 7.5 strikeouts; that is pretty strong given what the public is coming to expect of him. As always, the responsible thing to do here is play the market using OddsShopper’s MLB betting model.
The True Odds for this under are +105, and Fanatics‘ odds are +120 — that gives us a huge 7.3% edge on the under here.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Paul Skenes Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120 at Fanatics)
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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