Hot dang, did Isaiah have a good day yesterday. Not only did he hit on Roddery Munoz’s strikeout under, but Gunnar Henderson cashed a home run bet at +375! Well, we’re going to use the same MLB model and try to land another 2-for-2 day. We have two MLB player prop picks for tonight, one home run pick and one bet from OddsShopper’s MLB betting model. And if you are looking for profitable MLB betting tools, you get week or month for 50% off… keep reading to find out how!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Sunday, June 9
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Bet Today: Shohei Ohtani
Look, going after a home run bet is sometimes about taking one of the most obvious guys when the odds work for our favor. Henderson was +375 despite going into yesterday’s game with the second-most home runs in baseball, so Isaiah pounced on it and cashed a nice payout.
Ohtani isn’t giving us quite the same value in the odds department, but his still has the most expected value of any home run bet this afternoon.
The 15 homers Ohtani has this year rank second in the National League behind only Marcell Ozuna. And though the matchup isn’t the best — Luis Gil is a leading Cy Young contender in the American League — Yankee Stadium is great for a lefty slugger, seeing the fourth-biggest home run advantage for left-handed batters.
Now, Gil has been truly elite this year, shutting down power to both sides of the plate, striking them out about equally and dominating home and away. That said, Ohtani’s splits against righties are stark, as his OPS is nearly 300 points higher and he has hit home runs more than twice as often against righties than lefties.
The Gil matchup knocks Ohtani’s home run expectancy down a bit, to be sure. That said, it still has the most value of any home run bet and the second-highest win rate at 25%, narrowly trailing Ozuna’s 26% — his odds are down at +260.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+280 at FanDuel)
For the best price currently available, check out our Shohei Ohtani live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Justin Verlander
I’s been an odd season for Verlander and the Astros. Verlander’s side of that has amounted to solid surface-level numbers like a 3.63 ERA and 1.192 WHIP but mediocre advanced metrics like a 106 ERA+ (above average but a 10-year low for him) and a career-worst 5.14 fielding-independent pitching (FIP).
Oh, and he is also continuing last year’s strikeout pace that saw his strikeout rate drop precipitously from his career norms.
Verlander’s career strikeout rate is 24.6%, but through his prime — which ran to 2022 — he was up at 26.4%. Over the last year-plus, that has plummeted to 21.7%, including 22.2% this year, and his per-nine strikeout rate is down to 8.3.
The single-game totals have also been all over the map this year: Four games of seven-plus, five of four or fewer and none in between.
So basically, Verlander is either his old self or a less potent version of his new self, and there really has been no middle ground.
Today’s matchup with the Angels is relatively friendly given they strike out at an above-average rate this year. However, it is tough to predict much of anything for Verlander regardless of opponent. Instead, the responsible thing to do here is play the market using OddsShopper’s MLB betting model.
It gives Verlander a 59% chance of striking out five Angels or fewer and places the True Odds for this under at -144. With FanDuel‘s odds at -138, that gives us a 1.7% edge on the under here.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Justin Verlander Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-138 at FanDuel)
For the best price currently available, check out our Justin Verlander live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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