It might be just another lazy Sunday in some households, but across the MLB, all 15 teams are in action, starting at 1:05 p.m. ET. We’ve got three player props queued up and ready for today’s action, including one straight from the OddsShopper MLB betting model. If you haven’t tried out the +EV betting tools I’ve been using to build the bankroll for the last few weeks, you can get them for 50% off — keep scrolling to see the exclusive coupon code!
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MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Pick Today: Sunday, May 19
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Brice Turang
The leadoff man for the Milwaukee Brewers, Brice Turang, is quietly having an All-Star-caliber season. Batting over .300 and tied for second in MLB with 17 stolen bases, Turang is off to an amazing start. On Sunday, Turang and the Brewers will face the Houston Astros, with rookie Spencer Arrighetti getting the start for the Astros. Arrighetti will likely throw to Yainer Diaz behind the plate, creating a very vulnerable battery for the Brewers running game to exploit.
Defensively, Diaz leaves a lot to be desired, ranking 51st among MLB catchers with a 1.96 pop time and 44th in the majors in caught stealing above average (0). Though he’s caught 22% of runners this season, he isn’t a good enough defensive catcher for the Brewers to fear him behind the plate. Milwaukee ranks third in the MLB with 60 stolen bases in 45 games, with Turang leading the way. Projected for five at-bats, if Turang has a chance with a base open ahead of him, he’s likely going to be running.
Turang was uninspiring last season, batting just .218 in over 400 plate appearances a year ago. He did show off his speed with 26 stolen bases but clearly would have had more if he were getting on base at a consistent clip. With a .362 on-base percentage this year, he’s already recorded 17 stolen bases in just over 150 plate appearances. Listed at +210 on FanDuel, Turang’s odds are high enough to attack this spot.
Against a below-average pitcher and a poor defensive catcher, Turang is prime to be on base and running during Sunday’s action.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Brice Turang Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+210 at FanDuel)
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Andrew Vaughn
Andrew Vaughn came into the league with a highly touted hit tool a few years ago but has struggled to find his footing at the plate this season, batting just .207 this year. OddsShopper’s MLB betting model recommends betting against Vaughn and taking his under total bases prop, but make sure you book it with bet365 to get the best positive expected value (+EV):
As the model shows, the -130 odds at bet365 are the best value offered on Vaughn’s total bases prop this afternoon. Getting a 5- to 10-cent discount on a bet like this may not seem like a big deal to casual bettors, but finding the best line is crucial to building the bankroll and adds up over time. The model points to Vaughn as a +EV bet, with the true odds of his under 1.5 total bases calculated at -159.
So how does our model identify this player prop as one of the best values on the board? It draws in the odds from across the sports betting market; adjusts for hold, book sharpness and other factors; then generates a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each bet.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
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MLB Betting Model Pick: Andrew Vaughn Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130 at bet365)
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bo Bichette
The Toronto Blue Jays face off with division rival Tampa Bay Rays in the series finale on Sunday afternoon, hoping to avoid a sweep. The Jays have lost each of the first two games of the series by one run, falling to 19-25 on the season and two full games behind the Boston Red Sox for last place in the AL East.
Bo Bichette will likely bat cleanup against Rays starter Aaron Civale, hoping to tee off against the veteran pitcher. Bichette is 3-for-9 against Civale in his career and has struck out against him just once. Civale has allowed nine home runs in 46.1 innings this season, tied for the sixth most home runs allowed in the league. With nearly 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings, Civale has had some issues with the long ball this season.
Bichette has just two home runs this season but went deep last weekend. He has improved his hard contact rate of late, bumping up to 34.9%, 28th among qualifying MLB hitters.
He’s making good contact; he just needs to put the right launch angle on the ball. At +800 against one of the most homer-prone pitchers in the league, Bichette is great value.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bo Bichette to Hit a Home Run (+800 at FanDuel)
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