Today’s MLB betting model picks are scraping a bit since the five-game slate is holding us a little hostage. But there is still positive expected value (+EV) to be found in all sorts of places, so let’s turn to the model for the best MLB player props, including a home run pick today! Looking for more +EV MLB betting tools? Sign up for OddsShopper with promo code POSITIVE and get 50% off your first month.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, Aug. 1
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Jake Burger
The MLB player prop value is fewer and farther between than usual since we have an abbreviated Thursday slate, so we are going to have to deal with some juice here. That said, this Burger play is easily the best in the MLB betting model at -200 for under 0.5 RBIs.
The cutoff for positive expected value (+EV) in this instance is -222, and there are actually a number of books that are offering this prop at better odds than that. BetMGM is the best, though, a few ticks ahead of Caesars at -204.
That may seem like too much juice given that Burger has RBIs in three of the last five games and this game is in hitter-friendly Atlanta, but OddsShopper is giving this under a 69% chance of hitting — hence the massive true odds.
Burger’s hot streak that should normalize sooner rather than later given he had been a subpar on-base guy all season prior to the last week or two.
With that high win rate and solid EV edge, the OS Rating is 5, which is a comfortably bettable number. For clarity, this year our RBI bets with OS Ratings of at least 5 are 419-196 and have returned 7.4% on our investments. If you bet our recommended amounts on these all year, you would be up nearly $10,000 right now.
That’s where the OddsShopper MLB betting model stands out — these long-term values build up over time, so you can’t get too high on big wins or too low on individual losses. The goal with the market-based system is positive trends at scale; bets like this one will help get you there.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Jake Burger Under 0.5 RBIs (-200 at BetMGM)
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Bet Today: Marcell Ozuna
Ozuna is going to be among the most likely home run hitters on any given night since he trails only Shohei Ohtani for the National League homer lead. So his odds are usually going to be pretty short, and we need to jump on them when they drift into bettable territory.
That’s what we have today at two books. We calculate the true odds of Ozuna going deep at +306, so anything longer than that is past the breakeven point for long-term profitability. FanDuel comes in slightly +EV at +310, but BetMGM is the best bet here at +320. Those odds give us a 3.5% edge on Ozuna to hit one out tonight.
There is not a lot of data yet on Marlins starter Max Meyer since he only has 27 career innings in six starts. But those 27 innings have been solid, with a WHIP slightly above 1.000 and ERA of 3.00 on the dot.
Where Meyer has struggled, however, is with power; when he does allow contact, it’s often hard contact. Hitters are batting only .222 against him in his short career, but they are also slugging .465, giving him an ISO allowed of .233 — which is quite high. He also has surrendered home runs in three of his four starts this year.
Ozuna has better power numbers in same-handed matchups, with an elite .300 ISO and 26 of his 31 home runs against righties. He is also slugging slightly better at home, and Truist Park is the No. 3 stadium in MLB for weight on-base average on contact.
I’m taking Ozuna to go deep tonight at +320 on BetMGM, this will be playable as long as it stays north of +306.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Marcell Ozuna to Hit a Home Run (+320 at BetMGM)
For the best price currently available, check out our Marcell Ozuna home run live odds page!
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