We’re on a bit of a cold stretch here with our MLB betting model picks, having gone 1-3 the last couple of days, but as we always say, positive expected value (+EV) betting is not about short-term wins and losses, so don’t get too high on the cashes and two low on the misses. Here we will again turn to the model for the best MLB player props, including a home run pick today! If you want more +EV MLB betting tools, sign up for OddsShopper with promo code POSITIVE and get your first month 50% off!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, July 25
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Luis Severino
Forget the matchup with a decent Braves team, forget Severino’s supremely modest strikeout numbers relative to the rest of his career. What we’re looking at with this bet is the favorable odds FanDuel is cranking out compared to the rest of the industry.
There has been some movement, with DraftKings jumping up to -135 and getting closer to positive expected value (+EV), but FanDuel is still way out in front at -126 for Severino to fall shy of 5.5 strikeouts.
We have the true odds (how we calculate the breakeven point of a profitable bet) at -135, and no other book is beating that right now.
Severino is only averaging 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings, way down from his career 9.4 mark, and as a result he only six starts of six strikeouts or more (31.6%). The Braves are striking out above league average this year, but Severino is barely getting over this 5.5 line per nine innings.
He on average will need to get through the eighth inning to hit this over (which he has done twice and fell shy of 5.5 both times).
OddsShopper gives Severino a 57% chance of striking out five or fewer, and the FanDuel odds create some solid value tonight. This year, our back-tested simulations show that strikeout bets with OS Ratings of 2 or better in any timeframe are up 11.1% ROI across all sportsbooks and 14.6% at FanDuel. Such bets are 327-230, and if you tailed them all, you would be ahead over $10,000 this year!
But remember — sportsbook odds and true odds are constantly shifting, so stay on top of the live MLB odds page to make sure you are getting the most up-to-date information.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Luis Severino Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-126 at FanDuel)
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Bet Today: Pete Alonso
Sticking with the Mets, there is only currently only one home run bet in the evening slate that is +EV according to the MLB betting model: Pete Alonso. It’s also not overwhelmingly positive, checking in at only 0.8%, but there is still a little bit of wiggle room at BetMGM.
OddsShopper has calculated the true odds for Alonso to go deep at +525 due to his 16% chance of a home run tonight. That modest win percentage checks out despite Alonso’ home run power, as he and the Mets are getting the National League Cy Young favorite in Chris Sale. Few pitchers this year are limiting power and contact like Sale is, as he is surrendering a tiny .568 OPS and an ISO just at tick over .100. The discrepancies between right- and left-handed splits are not particularly stark either.
Here is where we like Alonso as a bet tonight, however: Though he gets on base against righties and lefties at around the same clip, his power against lefties is significantly better — Alonso has an elite .247 ISO versus left-handed pitching.
But as always, the market is what matters most here. BetMGM is offering an Alonso home run at +520 odds, the only book that has it +EV compared to the +525 true odds. Though we are only recommending a sprinkle at most in this tough matchup with Sale, long-term this is a good home run bet.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+525 at BetMGM)
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our other MLB articles! You may also find our guides on +EV MLB betting and home run betting strategy helpful.
