With the MLB advancing to the Divisional Series this weekend, we’ve got a four-game slate on tap this evening. Let’s dive into our top MLB player prop and home run picks for today, Saturday, October 5, in this space. The tools we’re discussing are 18,958-15,288 (2.3% ROI) on all +EV MLB bets with an OS Rating of 2 or higher, including 2,987-2,351 (9.3% ROI) on all strikeout props. Curious about our process? Check out our guide to MLB player prop betting strategy.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, October 5
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Picks for Today: Saturday, October 5
What do you think about when you place an MLB bet — or any bet? Are you hoping to find a few can’t-miss “locks”, or do you simply try to find an edge and size your bet accordingly? The latter strategy is the one that professional bettors use, and it’s easy to find such an edge with Portfolio EV.
Unlike projections-based sports betting tools, Portfolio EV uses the odds across the sports betting world to identify lines with positive expected value (+EV). You can even use our tools to get a bunch of bets with edge down fast with our mass entry tool, which works with every major sport, including college football, where we’ve got a 12.2% ROI!
To help you get more bets down for less money, here are three MLB player props from our tool for today:
These three lines were at the top of the board on Portfolio EV when this article went live. Do note that two are home run bets with long odds. Our tools also provide recommended bet sizing, which, by default, is based on a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll. You’ll notice that the amount of exposure to these home run props is less than 1% of bankroll.
Click this link for additional free +EV MLB bets. We give out the top pick on the board for free when users visit that page, so if anything is popping with more edge, you’ll see it over there! But if you’re hoping to build an actual profitable portfolio (and to build it fast), get our tools for free just by registering with a partner site!
So, why does the MLB betting model like these props? It works by indexing the odds from across the market. With that information, we can generate the true odds (a breakeven price) for each bet. If we spot a book offering a better for longer than that price, it has +EV.
That leads us to the home run props for Kerry Carpenter and Gleyber Torres. The prices for them at Fanatics — +710 and +1000, respectively — are longer than at other books. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has them at +509 and +783. Most public books have Carpenter at around +500 and Torres around +700. That’s value.
Lastly, the model also advises a wager on Kodai Senga to stay under 2.5 total strikeouts. This bet is a sharp one — at least for the +106 available at FanDuel. No other book has this bet in the plus money; it’s -108 or worst everywhere but FanDuel.
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