If you’re a baseball fan, there are few better times of year than October. Every game means a whole lot more when the World Series is on the line. The Wild Card Round delivered on Tuesday, and now four teams are just one loss away from elimination. Keep reading for our best MLB player prop picks and predictions for today, Wednesday, October 2, but note that we’re 18,949-15,281 (2.3% ROI) on all +EV MLB bets with an OS Rating of 2 or higher, including 2,987-2,346 (9.4% ROI) on all strikeout props. Check out our guide to MLB player prop betting strategy to find out how we’ve done it!
MLB Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Wednesday, October 2
MLB Player Prop Picks & Predictions for Today: Wednesday, October 2
When you’re placing MLB player prop bets, what are you considering? Are you looking at players’ traditional stats, like batting average or are you looking at expected stats like expected batting average? While both sets of stats can help you find sharp MLB bets, you can leave statistics and projections behind with a market-based betting tool like Portfolio EV.
With OddsShopper’s Portfolio EV betting tools, it’s easy to find a bunch of bets with positive expected value (+EV), or those that you expect to be profitable over the long term. Once you’ve found the ones you want, you can get your action down quickly via our mass entry tool. It works on every major sport, not just the MLB; we’ve got a 12.2% ROI on college football!
To help you build your portfolio of profitable bets this week, here are three plays from our tool:
These were today’s top three picks, per Portfolio EV, by the time of publication. Most are for late games, but the best bet by far is in the earlier Tigers Astros game. Make sure to check this link for more free +EV MLB bets.
Our MLB betting model works by indexing the odds from across the market. With that information, we can generate the true odds (a breakeven price) for each bet. If we spot a book offering a better for longer than that price, it has +EV.
So, what stands out on today’s MLB slate? The only bet with an OS Rating above 2 as of publication was Yordan Alvarez to stay under 1.5 total bases. This bet will cost you only -120 at BetMGM but is -138 at Pinnacle, a sharp book, and is no better than -131 anywhere else.
Two other players stand out in the model, albeit with much less edge. The model recommends fading both Francisco Lindor, who willed the Mets to their playoff spot on Monday, and Max Fried, who will look to keep the Atlanta Braves alive to fight another day.
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV MLB player props! We give out the top pick on the board for free whenever users visit, but to build a deeper portfolio (and to build it quickly), you’ll need to sign up. The good news is that you can get our tools for free just by registering with a partner site!
