Let’s go! Yesterday’s article cashed Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 total bases at +140 (and to hit a home run at +550 — +750 if you used your DraftKings boost as advised) as well as Zack Wheeler under 6.5 strikeouts at -115. You can find my personal betting results here, but we’ll be talking about our +EV betting tools again today. You can find their results here. Without further ado, let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Friday, August 16. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, August 16
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Aaron Nola
Need more MLB betting action? Check out our sports betting model or our MLB player prop betting strategy guide!
Yesterday, we faded RHP Zack Wheeler on the strikeout markets against the Washington Nationals. We’re keeping things simple by fading RHP Aaron Nola on the exact same market in the exact same matchup tonight. Since the trade deadline, the Nationals have minimized their strikeout rate versus RHPs, dropping it from 20.9% before the deadline to 16.1% after it.
The trend makes sense — at the deadline, the Nats parted ways with Jesse Winker, who still ranks second in total strikeouts (84), as well as Lane Thomas (72). With Joey Gallo (71) also out since mid-June, the Nats just don’t have as many inefficient bats in their lineup anymore.
Those are my projections-based reasons for fading pitchers versus Washington. A look at the odds from every book reveals a market-based reason today, too. Don’t know what market-based betting is? Read our guide to sports betting strategy. Nola’s odds of staying under 5.5 strikeouts at BetMGM are beating the market, opening up positive expected value (+EV):
To help you spot similar +EV bets, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from every book. Once that’s done, it generates a breakeven price for each bet called “true odds.” With that number, it estimates the expected value of every bet on the board that day.
In this case, Wheeler’s true odds of staying under 5.5 strikeouts come out to +108. That’s narrowly better than the +115 at BetMGM, but it’s wide enough to justify getting some action down.
These bets can yield great returns over the long run. But how much money can systematically tailing our +EV bets actually make you? Check out our results page for some insight:
As of today, our model had identified 4,474 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 2 or better this year. Of those, a whopping 2,530 won, generating a 10.4% ROI (imagine the compounding returns!) for those who tailed.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Aaron Nola Under 5.5 Strikeouts +115 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Aaron Nola total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bobby Witt Jr.
The Kansas City Royals are on the road against the Cincinnati Reds this evening, and while RHP Nick Martinez has been decent at limiting power for the Reds this season, he’s running into an unstoppable force in RHB Bobby Witt. Further, Martinez’s rate of 0.6 xHR/9 allowed is artificially deflated by his time as a reliever and his road games. At his home park, Martinez is allowing 0.8 xHR/9; as a starter, his SLG ballons from .335 to .421.
No batter is better positioned to take advantage of Martinez today than Witt. He is slashing a killer .350/.404/.625 against RHPs with 21 of his 24 home runs. Over the last 30 days, he sports a jaw-dropping .453/.505/.832 slash line with eight home runs.
That said, power has lagged a bit for Witt. He only has 24 home runs, good for 0.19 per game. However, when we look at expected stats, we get a different story. He averaging 0.23 xHR per game — and 0.31 xHR per game at Great American Ball Park! He also sports a .328 xBA (100th percentile) and .600 xSLG (98th)
From Witt’s actual home run production, you’d expect home run odds of about +400 (20%) for him. But when we adjust for the more favorable stadium, we’d get a line of about +233 (30%). Most books have split the difference, opening up value on the +333 (23%) at BetMGM.
Things get even more interesting if you head over to DraftKings. Although they’re charging +300 (25%) for Witt to go yard, they’re also offering a +200 odds surge today, which means we can buy Witt at +500 (16.7%). That’s not only beating his rate of actual home runs per game, but that’s also just over half of his rate of expected home runs per game in Great American! Even if Witt doesn’t go yard, I have some action on him to get multiple bags (-139 at Caesars), too
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bobby Witt Jr. +333 at BetMGM or +500 Boosted at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Bobby Witt Jr. home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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