The MLB rolls into the work week with a solid but unspectacular Monday card. We don’t have a full slate of games since it’s a travel day. Today, we’ll be talking about our +EV betting tools again to help spotlight the math behind two MLB player prop bets. You can find our tools’ results here. Without further ado, let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Monday, August 19. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, August 19
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Yusei Kikuchi
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The Houston Astros will host the Boston Red Sox this week, and the series begins with LHP Yusei Kikuchi taking the bump. Although the Sox have struggled with strikeouts all season, as they rank 28th in strikeouts taken per game this year (9.7), they rank a solid 16th in strikeout rate versus LHPs since the All-Star Break (24.1%). In August alone, Boston ranks 14th (23.8%).
Those are my quick projections-based reasons for fading Kikuchi in this spot. A look at the odds from every book reveals a market-based reason today, too. Don’t know what market-based betting is? Read our guide to sports betting strategy. Kikuchi’s odds of staying under his lofty total of 7.5 strikeouts clock in at great prices on BetRivers and FanDuel, opening up positive expected value (+EV):
To help you find other +EV bets, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from every book. Once that’s done, it generates a breakeven price for each bet called “true odds.” With that number, it estimates the expected value of every bet on the board that day.
In this case, Kikuchi’s true odds of staying under 7.5 strikeouts come out to -148, which is narrowly better than the -141 at BetRivers and is the exact price on FanDuel.
These bets can yield great returns over the long run. But how much money can systematically tailing our +EV bets actually make you? Check out our results page for some insight:
As of today, our model had identified 18,360 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 0 or better this year. Of those, a tidy 9,890 won, generating a 5.5% ROI (imagine the compounding returns!) for those who tailed.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Yusei Kikuchi Under 7.5 Strikeouts -141 at BetRivers
For the best price currently available, check out our Yusei Kikuchi total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today:
The last three of my home run pick writeups have cashed — we got Gunnar Henderson last Thursday, Bobby Witt Jr. last Friday and Marcell Ozuna last Saturday. I didn’t write up a pick on Sunday, so I’m hoping to keep the streak alive with today’s play. We’re going to tie the wagon to RHB Tyler O’Neill against LHP Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi’s rate of 1.2 xHR/9 allowed is on the higher side, and it would be 1.4 xHR/9 if he had played every game in Minute Maid Park.
The obvious reason to trust O’Neill today is that he is 2-for-2 against Kikuchi with home runs in both plate appearances. That isn’t just luck, though — O’Neill is slashing a dominant .311/.424/.650 versus LHPs this year, including nine of his 22 home runs.
O’Neill’s peripherals reveal this success versus LHBs is probably sustainable. His .223 xBA (11th percentile) might be awful, but his .493 xSLG (89th), 16% barrel rate (96th) and 75.1 mph bat speed (90th) are downright dominant. He has destroyed four-seamers for a .574 xSLG, which is a problem for Kikuchi, who throws a four-seamer 49.2% of the time.
O’Neill is averaging about one expected home run every four games, so you’d expect to see his home run odds clock in at about +300 (25%). The stadium may play a limiting role, as O’Neill would be averaging just over one every five games if he had played every game in Houston, still edging out +400 (20%).
You can buy O’Neill to go yard for +400 at BetMGM, which, per the math above, is a fantastic deal. But things get a bit more interesting if you go to DraftKings. They may be charging +340 (22.7%) for O’Neill to hit a home run, but with their +200 odds surge today, we can buy him at +540 (15.6%). You can’t leave a deal like that on the table. Even if O’Neill can’t go yard, he could get a double, and backing him for multiple bases (+145 at Fanatics) is a good idea.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Tyler O’Neill +400 at BetMGM or +540 Boosted at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Tyler O’Neill home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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