It was a tidy Thursday for us, as yesterday’s full card went 7-5 (+1.1U). Sure, we lost the plays featured in the article, but that just speaks to the importance of volume. You can access my full betting cards by subscribing to The Profit Isaiah — and, until the start of the NFL season, you can lock in your first three months for just $17.50 (33% off) with code “VIBES”. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Friday, August 9. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
Need more MLB betting action? Check out our sports betting model or our MLB player prop betting strategy guide!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, August 8
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Marcell Ozuna
It’s Big Bear in Coors Field. I shouldn’t have to explain much more than that, but I will anyway. Marcell Ozuna is putting together a monster season despite Atlanta’s collapse around him, slashing a dominant .299/.373/.581 on the year. The expected stats all point to his performance as sustainable, as he sports a .300 xBA (96th percentile) and .634 xSLG (99th).
Ozuna head to Coors Field to take on RHP Tanner Gordon today. Although we’ve only seen 21.1 IP from Gordon, they’ve been nightmarish. He is allowing RHBs to slash .413/.438/.826 with five home runs in just 46 at-bats.
At first, you may blame Coors Field for Gordon’s struggles. However, only 6.1 of his 21.1 IP came in Denver. When we adjust for stadium differences, he is coughing up a monstrous 2.1 xHR/9 that would jump to 2.5 xHR/9 in Coors.
Ozuna is slashing .284/.352/.582 versus RHPs with 28 home runs on the year. Although he has only 33 actual home runs to his name this season (which is still a lot!), he would have 42 if he had played every game in Coors Field.
Let’s back Ozuna to hit a home run (+265 at FanDuel) and to tally multiple bases (-130 at Fanatics). We’re beating the market with both bets, but especially the latter, which would’ve cost you about -150 at most other sportsbooks as of publication.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Marcell Ozuna +265 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Marcell Ozuna home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Michael Lorenzen
When the Kansas City Royals added RHP Michael Lorenzen at the trade deadline, I wasn’t sure what the upside was. Lorenzen is a solid innings-eater but not much else. His 4.62 xERA (26th percentile) is unremarkable, as is his 18.1% strikeout rate (17th). All of that is to say that we’re fading him against this improving St. Louis Cardinals lineup.
St. Louis ranks 12th in strikeouts taken per game this year (8.2), but things are getting even better. Their performance against RHPs is especially illustrative of this trend — from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, they ranked 19th in strikeout rate versus RHPs (23.3%). Since then, they rank sixth (18.7%).
Those projection-based reasons make this bet attractive to me, but a market-based approach points to an edge as well. If you don’t know what that means, read our guide to sports betting strategy. Lorenzen’s odds of staying under 3.5 strikeouts at FanDuel are better than the rest of the market, presenting us with positive expected value (+EV):
To identify +EV, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from every book. Once that’s done, it generates a breakeven price for each bet called “true odds.” With that number, we can estimate the expected value of every wager.
Here, the true odds of Lorenzen failing to clear 3.5 total strikeouts come out to -103, which is marginally higher than the +102 odds available on FanDuel. This isn’t a game-breaking edge, but it’s a meaningful one — over the long term, bets like this one will turn you a profit.
But how much of a profit will bets like this turn? That’s a good question, and we have an answer: just check out our results page. As of yesterday, our model had dug up 6,733 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 1 or higher on the year. A tidy 3,681 of them won, yielding those who tailed a 7.6% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 Strikeouts +102 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Michael Lorenzen total strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for the best +EV MLB bets today.
