We went 1-1 on last night’s slate, easily cashing an under for Cole Irvin but losing an over for Paul Goldschmidt. I’m eager to get back in the win column with a batter prop, and I’m really excited about the one I’ve dug up for tonight’s slate. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Friday, June 21. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, June 21
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Colin Rea
I’m a noted skeptic of RHP Colin Rea, but instead of backing a batter against him tonight (which, for the record, I may also do — keep an eye on the Discord), I recommend fading him on the strikeout market. He sports a brutal 16.7% strikeout rate (14th percentile). He has stayed under 3.5 strikeouts in five of his seven road starts.
The matchup with the San Diego Padres is a tough one, too. The Padres rank second in both strikeouts taken per game (6.9) and strikeout rate versus RHP (18.7%). Since acquiring Luis Arraez on May 4, San Diego leads the MLB in strikeout rate versus RHP (17.4%) as well.
The books have set Rea’s strikeout total to 3.5 tonight. The under is trading for odds between -140 and -160 at almost every public book. A sharp book, Pinnacle, is charging -158 Notably, this bet is -130 at DraftKings, which means this wager is trading with plenty of positive expected value (+EV) in our market-based MLB betting model:
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
Tonight, Rea’s true odds of staying under 3.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -138. That number is beating the price available at DraftKings but nowhere else.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
From the beginning of the season to last night, all strikeout props with an OS Rating of two or higher with at least two hours before game start had an ROI of 13.1%, which increased to 21.4% for all such bets at DraftKings.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Colin Rea Under 3.5 Total Strikeouts -130 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Colin Rea total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Joc Pederson
The Arizona Diamondbacks are on the east coast to take on the Philadelphia Phillies tonight, and it’s RHP Taijuan Walker taking the bump for Philadelphia. It’s been a season to forget for Walker, who sports a brutal 5.84 xERA (4th percentile) and .278 xBA (11th). He is giving up 2.1 xHR per nine, and lefty batters are slashing a brutal .327/.383/.564 against him with 12 extra-base hits and six home runs.
Pederson stands out as the sharpest target to go yard against Walker. While the switch-hitting Ketel Marte is another possible option, he is slashing just .255/.318/.386 against righties this year, while Pederson is slashing a far more impressive .299/.391/.509.
Beyond his splits, Pederson’s expected stats are quite good this season. The 32-year-old sports a .282 xBA (87th percentile) to go with a .472 xSLG (80th). He has hit 8.9 xHR to date, including nine batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences in Philadelphia.
The MLB weather report is also in our favor today, as we can expect nine mph winds blowing out through right-center field, where Pederson, a lefty hitter, naturally pulls the ball. He has a career slash line of .423/.444/.654 against Walker, making him a solid bet for multiple bases (+110 at ESPN) and a home run (+300 at FanDuel).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Joc Pederson +300 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Joc Pederson home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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