Oof — after several strong nights in a row, we went 1-2 last night, winning a bet for Jon Berti but losing Bryce Harper and Kyle Tucker tickets. This evening, I advise wagering on a few more MLB player props, including two home run picks and one bet from our MLB betting model. Hoping to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? Get your first week for $1… just keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, May 17
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Rafael Devers
The Boston Red Sox will visit Busch Stadium and the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. The Cards continue to start the corpse of RHP Kyle Gibson, so we’re getting exposure to one of Boston’s batsmen. Gibson sports a 5.42 xERA (12th percentile) and .275 xBA allowed (18th). Further, he has coughed up a .466 xSLG.
We’re backing Devers in this spot for a handful of reasons, including Gibson’s splits against lefty bats — they’re slashing .204/.303/.409 against him with 10 extra-base hits and four home runs. Those aren’t terrible numbers, but they’re certainly not good, and Devers himself s slashing .444/.444/.556 versus Gibson.
We’re also backing Devers because of his impressive numbers. He’s slashing a solid .288/.390/.512 this year, which improves to .302/.394/.593 against RHPs. Devers has been getting somewhat lucky, as his .266 xBA (67th percentile) and .498 xSLG (84th) are a bit lower than his actual numbers, but I have faith he’ll stay hot.
Lastly, tonight’s game is in St. Louis, and Busch Stadium ranks ninth in overall park factors for batsmen. It drops to 19th for lefties, which again, isn’t great, but the friendly 73-degree weather and 73% humidity should help Devers out, and we’re getting him at friendly odds.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at DraftKings & Home Run +450 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Rafael Devers total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Ryan Feltner
In a rare reprieve for Colorado’s pitching staff, the Rockies will visit the San Francisco Giants to play in a pitcher-friendly park. Still, despite the positive change in scenery, fading Colorado’s starter, RHP Ryan Feltner, may prove sharp tonight. Feltner’s 20.5% strikeout rate (37th percentile) isn’t all that good, and he’s outperforming the 18.9% he recorded last year and the 19.6% he recorded in 2022.
Today, our MLB betting model recommends playing Feltner’s under on the strikeout markets. The Giants rank a solid 12th in strikeouts taken per game (8), and they rank fourth when looking at just home games (6.9). That said, there’s no such thing as a good bet without a good number, and we’re getting enough positive expected value (+EV) at FanDuel:
Feltner to stay under 4.5 strikeouts is only available for +108 at FanDuel — no other book has odds north of +100. Most public books are in the -105 to -110 range, which is also where Pinnacle, a sharp book, lands.
The under 4.5 is a +EV bet at FanDuel because of that market disparity. Our tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds). In this case, the true odds of this bet at +102, which is enough value for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to bet $7.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Ryan Feltner Under 4.5 Total Strikeouts +108 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Ryan Feltner total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Juan Soto
The New York Yankees will host the Chicago White Sox tonight, and it’s expected to be RHP Mike Clevinger taking the bump today for the visitors. In two starts, Clevinger has coughed up one home run, which isn’t terrible, but his 6.01 xERA and .312 xBA allowed both are. Lefty batsman Juan Soto is trading at +350 at FanDuel to go yard but is between +330 and +265 at other public books.
It’s been a rough stretch for Soto, who is slashing .120/.179/.160 over the last seven days. However, his overall slash line of .302/.403/.517 remains elite. His .314 xBA (98th percentile), .602 xSLG (98th) and 95.5 mph average exit velocity (100th) are good reminders that even good bats get cold. The return to Yankee Stadium, where Soto is slashing .310/.400/.549, should help him out.
I’m backing him for multiple bases (+120 at Fanatics) and a home run (+350 at FanDuel). Although Aaron Judge has drawn all the attention for the Bronx Bombers of late, Soto is close behind in both actual (9) and expected (10.1) home runs. While 10 of Judge’s batted balls would’ve cleared the fences at Yankee Stadium, 11 of Soto’s would’ve. Give me Soto for the far better price — Judge is trading at +165!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Juan Soto +350 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Juan Soto home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
