Yesterday’s tiny MLB slate saw us fall 0-2, losing tickets for Jack Flaherty and Gunnar Henderson, and ending our streak of winning home run picks at two. That’s not a great showing — I know I can do better — so let’s bounce back tonight. I’ve dug up a few MLB player prop picks for today, including two home run picks and one bet from our MLB betting model. Hoping to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You get week or month for 50% off… keep reading to find out how!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, May 24
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Christopher Morel
The St. Louis Cardinals continue to start RHP Miles Mikolas, so we continue to bet against him whenever he takes the mound. Mikolas is having a brutal season. Opposing batsmen are slashing .294/.332/.505 with 27 extra-base hits and nine home runs. Same-handed batters like Morel are slashing .294/.325/.495.
The problems for Mikolas become more obvious when we dig into power and expected stats. Mikolas is allowing a .493 xSLG, second-worst among today’s slate of starting pitchers, to go with 9.6 expected home runs, second-most in the entire MLB this year.
While only nine of his batted balls allowed would’ve cleared the fences at Busch Stadium, Morel and the Cubs will benefit from favorable conditions tonight. The MLB weather report calls for roughly 10 mph winds blowing out through left-center field, potentially giving righty bats like Morel a slight boost.
We’re also locking in on Morel because of his own impressive resume. He leads the Cubs in both actual (9) and expected (9.6) home runs this season. His .271 xBA (74th percentile) and .517 xSLG (90th) are impressive, far more so than his actual slash line (.205/.301/.392), which suggests he has been unlucky. Let’s back him for some better luck in tonight’s contest.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Christopher Morel Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 at FanDuel & Home Run +400 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Christopher Morel total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Corbin Burnes
After yesterday’s questionable call ended the Baltimore’s game against Chicago, the White Sox will get a chance to bounce back tonight. Unfortunately, they’ll have to deal with ace RHP Corbin Burnes, who sports a 2.83 xERA (85th percentile) and 25.6% strikeout rate (71st).
Despite Burnes’ impressive stats, our MLB betting model recommends fading him on the strikeout markets tonight. The White Sox, while awful, rank 13th-best in strikeouts taken per game (8.2) — and we’re getting too much positive expected value (+EV) on this wager at ESPNBET:
While Burnes will cost you between -139 and -150 at most other public book to stay under 6.5 strikeouts, he is only -135 at ESPNBET. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists him all the way down at -179. Hard Rock even has this one down to -190.
This line renders as a +EV bet on ESPNBET because of this market disparity. Our MLB betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds).
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 Strikeouts -135 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Corbin Burnes total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Randy Arozarena
The Kansas City Royals and RHP Seth Lugo have been getting incredibly lucky this season. Lugo has held opposing batters to .212/.254/.349 thus far despite owning a .239 xBA (55th percentile) and a .424 xSLG. Further, Lugo has coughed up just six actual home runs despite surrendering 8.8 expected ones!
The Royals will play this one in the domed Tropicana Field, where eight of Lugo’s batted balls allowed would’ve cleared the fences, far more than the five he would’ve allowed at Kauffman Field alone. Same-handed batters have been the issue for Lugo, as they’re slashing .225/.260/.400 against him.
Well, we’re targeting a same-handed batter against Lugo in Randy Arozarena. It certainly hasn’t been the year Arozarena or the Tampa Bay Rays would’ve liked, as he owns a miserable .199 xBA (5th percentile) and .356 xSLG (25th), but that’s all factored into his odds.
Arozarena has mashed eight actual and expected home runs this year, all of which would’ve counted in his home park, and we’re backing him to go yard for +600 on FanDuel.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Randy Arozarena +600 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Randy Arozarena home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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