MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today for Friday, May 24

The problems for Mikolas become more obvious when we dig into power and expected stats. Mikolas is allowing a .493 xSLG, second-worst among today’s slate of starting pitchers, to go with 9.6 expected home runs, second-most in the entire MLB this year.

While only nine of his batted balls allowed would’ve cleared the fences at Busch Stadium, Morel and the Cubs will benefit from favorable conditions tonight. The MLB weather report calls for roughly 10 mph winds blowing out through left-center field, potentially giving righty bats like Morel a slight boost.

We’re also locking in on Morel because of his own impressive resume. He leads the Cubs in both actual (9) and expected (9.6) home runs this season. His .271 xBA (74th percentile) and .517 xSLG (90th) are impressive, far more so than his actual slash line (.205/.301/.392), which suggests he has been unlucky. Let’s back him for some better luck in tonight’s contest.

While Burnes will cost you between -139 and -150 at most other public book to stay under 6.5 strikeouts, he is only -135 at ESPNBET. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists him all the way down at -179. Hard Rock even has this one down to -190.

This line renders as a +EV bet on ESPNBET because of this market disparity. Our MLB betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds).

Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.

The Kansas City Royals and RHP Seth Lugo have been getting incredibly lucky this season. Lugo has held opposing batters to .212/.254/.349 thus far despite owning a .239 xBA (55th percentile) and a .424 xSLG. Further, Lugo has coughed up just six actual home runs despite surrendering 8.8 expected ones!

The Royals will play this one in the domed Tropicana Field, where eight of Lugo’s batted balls allowed would’ve cleared the fences, far more than the five he would’ve allowed at Kauffman Field alone. Same-handed batters have been the issue for Lugo, as they’re slashing .225/.260/.400 against him.

Well, we’re targeting a same-handed batter against Lugo in Randy Arozarena. It certainly hasn’t been the year Arozarena or the Tampa Bay Rays would’ve liked, as he owns a miserable .199 xBA (5th percentile) and .356 xSLG (25th), but that’s all factored into his odds.

Arozarena has mashed eight actual and expected home runs this year, all of which would’ve counted in his home park, and we’re backing him to go yard for +600 on FanDuel.