The MLB rolls on with a hectic Friday card, and we’re looking to build off of yesterday’s 1-1 performance in which we cashed a strikeout prop but lost a total bases one. With some pumpkins on the mound today in RHP Miles Mikolas and LHP Patrick Corbin, I’ve got plenty of MLB player prop angles worth attacking. Let’s dive into today’s MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Friday, May 31.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, May 31
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Jose Ramirez
What the Washington Nationals are doing to LHP Patrick Corbin is a crime. The two-time All-Star deserves better than getting trotted out every five games just to get dismantled by opposing offenses. It’s brutal to watch. Thumbing through the best and worst performers by expected metrics reveals just how bad things have gotten for him:
Corbin sports an embarrassing 6.37 xERA (3rd percentile) and is allowing batters to record a .322 xBA. Those expected metrics aren’t far off his actual performance, either — he sports a nasty 6.12 ERA while batsmen are slashing .322/.376/.547 against him.
Enter Jose Ramirez. Ramirez is 0-for-6 against Corbin across their lengthy careers, but that’s a two-game sample, one of which took place in 2017. Ramirez is slashing .323/.384/.631 against southpaws this year with 10 extra-base hits and five home runs.
Unlike Corbin, Ramirez at least owns average expected stats. His .246 xBA (43rd percentile) and .436 xSLG (63rd) aren’t anything to write home about, but he ranks tied with Gunnar Henderson for fourth in expected home runs (16.6) this season. A whopping 17 of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences of Progressive Field.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 & Home Run +475 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Jose Ramirez total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Patrick Corbin
We’re not done talking about LHP Patrick Corbin. Despite his brutal 13.2% strikeout rate (5th percentile) and Cleveland’s fifth-best rate of strikeouts per game (7.5), Corbin owns a strikeout prop total of 3.5, and we can buy the under for +115 at Hard Rock or +110 at DraftKings. Both lines are rendering with positive expected value (+EV) in our MLB betting model:
While Corbin’s odds at Hard Rock and DraftKings are friendly, most other books have this bet priced between +105 and -112, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -108. Corbin has stayed under the 3.5 in five of 11 starts. He has stayed under 4.5 in nine of 11.
Our MLB betting model has an absurd 14.4% ROI on all MLB strikeout props with an OS Rating of three or higher taken two hours before game start. That’s over a 710-bet sample. At Hard Rock specifically, the tools have a 16% ROI on these bets over a 90-bet sample.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 Strikeouts +115 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, check out our Patrick Corbin total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bryce Harper
It’s not insightful to argue that Bryce Harper is a great batter — we all know this. But is he a better batter than the market believes? Today, he’ll cost you +350 at FanDuel to go yard. I think those odds are too long for his matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals and RHP Miles Mikolas.
Mikolas and the Cardinals have not been good this year. The innings eater has coughed up nine actual home runs on 10.1 expected. Opposing batters own a .284 xBA and .482 xSLG when he takes the bump. Further, once Mikolas exits, he’ll be relieved by a bullpen that has coughed up the 11th-most home runs this year (22).
Meanwhile, Harper is slashing .265/.374/.556 against RHPs like Mikolas, while Mikolas is allowing lefties like Harper to slash .295/.341/.500. Harper has mashed 10 of his 13 actual home runs against righties. Mikolas has allowed four of his nine home runs to lefties.
Ultimately, it’s Harper’s strong expected stats that make the +350 a value bet today. Harper’s 11.2 expected home runs, while less than his actual numbers, include 13 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fence in Philadelphia.
Further, his .483 xSLG (82nd percentile) suggests that even if he can’t clear the fence, an extra-base hit is still well within his range of outcomes. Let’s back to for a home run (+350 at FanDuel) and over 1.5 total bases (+105 at BetMGM).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bryce Harper +350 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Bryce Harper home run live odds page!
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