The weekend was quite generous to us — We had an electric +11.9U showing on Saturday along with a solid +1.6U showing on Sunday. Remember, you can access my full betting cards by subscribing to The Profit Isaiah — and, until the start of the NFL season, you can lock in your first three months for just $17.30 (33% off) with code “VIBES”. If you’re wondering if ti’s worth the investment, check out my results here. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Monday, August 12. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, August 12
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Trevor Larnach
The Minnesota Twins will take on RHP Brady Singer and the Kansas City Royals tonight. Singer has struggled against opposite-handed batters this year, allowing them to slash .296/.367/.493 with 30 extra-base hits and 11 home runs this season. Singer sports a .268 xBA (19th percentile) and, despite his 3.03 ERA, a 4.57 xERA (27th).
Singer’s BA jumps from .212 at home to .282 on the road, creating a sizeable amount of value for us to exploit. Further, while Singer has allowed only 13 home runs on the year, he has coughed up 14 expected home runs at Target Field.
I recommend trusting LHB Trevor Larnach to take advantage of Singer in this spot. Larnach hits second versus RHPs, and he is slashing .249/.324/.433 across a 233 at-bat sample against them this year. This includes 21 extra-base hits and all 11 of his home runs.
While Larnach may not be the most exciting batsman around, he is playing further above replacement level than some may realize. His .269 xBA (77th percentile) and .485 xSLG (85th) are great and exceed his actual stats (.245 and .420) in both metrics.
I trust Larnach to go yard today (+630 at FanDuel), but if he can’t clear the fences, he should at least record multiple bases (+145 at DraftKings) in this friendly matchup. Those odds are just too long for a guy with Larnach’s stats.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Trevor Larnach +630 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Trevor Larnach home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Sonny Gray
The St. Louis Cardinals are at Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds tonight, and we’re fading St. Louis’ starter, RHP Sonny Gray. While the 34-year-old Gray has been steady this year with a 3.68 xERA and a dominant 30.4% strikeout rate (91st percentile), there is some value on the under for his strikeout prop.
It’s true that the Reds have struggled with strikeouts this season, as they rank 23rd in strikeouts taken per game (9), but they’ve been cleaning up their act lately. Since the All-Star Break, the Reds rank 13th in strikeout rate versus RHPs like Gray (22.1%). That rate improves to 20.2% when they play at home.
Those are some quick projection-based reasons for placing this bet. I have some market-based reasons as well. If you don’t know what market-based betting is, read our guide to sports betting strategy. Gray’s odds of staying under 6.5 strikeouts at FanDuel are beating the market, presenting us with positive expected value (+EV):
To spot +EV, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from every book. Once that’s done, it generates a breakeven price for each bet called “true odds.” With that number, we can estimate the expected value of every wager.
Here, the true odds of Gray staying under 6.5 total strikeouts come out to -131, which is higher than the -122 odds you can buy at FanDuel. This isn’t a game-breaking edge, but it’s a meaningful one — over the long term, bets like this one will turn you a profit.
So how much of a profit can you expect to make from tailing our +EV bets? Just check out our results page. As of today, our model has dug up 3,031 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 3 or higher on the year. You’d be happy to know that 1,742 of those bets won, yielding those who tailed a 12.3% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Sonny Gray Under 6.5 Strikeouts -122 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Sonny Gray total strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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