As a new week begins, so do fresh series with intriguing matchups to target player props and home run picks in Major League Baseball. Among today’s slate of MLB games, there are two props that have caught my attention. If you’re looking for more of my MLB action, and all of my plays across every sport, you can sign up for my picks and my premium Discord for $9.95 a week or $25.95 a month. With that being said, let’s dive into my top MLB player prop picks for Monday, Aug. 26.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, August 26
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Rafael Devers
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Jose Berrios is a strong fade candidate tonight. The Blue Jays right-hander heads to Fenway Park with a 4.97 expected ERA and a 4.43 expected FIP. He has especially struggled with the long ball, posting a 15.3% home run-to-fly ball ratio and allowing 1.55 home runs per nine innings.
As a left-handed hitter, Devers has thrived against righties this season, with a 1.081 OPS, .674 SLG and a .439 wOBA. It’s a healthy distance with those splits in comparison to how he’s batting against lefties.
He leads the Red Sox with 28 home runs and faces a viable matchup against Berrios that may allow him to increase that total.
According to OddsShopper’s live odds page, +505 is the best price available at Circa.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Rafael Devers (+505 at Circa)
For the best price currently available, check out our Rafael Devers home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller is coming off his best outing of the season, where he pitched seven scoreless innings and matched his season high of nine strikeouts against the Rangers.
I’m expecting regression to the mean in his start against the Cubs. He’s averaging 5.4 strikeouts per start and has stayed under his prop mark of 5.5 in 14 of 25 outings.
His contact rate is 81% and his swinging strike rate is 9%. League average is 77% and 11%, respectively, so he’s on the wrong side of the mean.
Over the past month, the Cubs has become incredibly disciplined at the plate. Their strikeout rate has dipped to 17.9%, which ranks fourth in that span.
Being a division foe, this is a familiar matchup for the Cubs lineup. Also, each game needs to be treated as a do-or-die scenario with their playoff lives on the line, so each at-bat is crucial.
According to OddsShopper’s Market-based EV Bets, Keller’s true odds are -141; however, we can snag him at -132 at FanDuel.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Mitch Keller Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-132 at FanDuel)
For the best price currently available, check out our Mitch Keller total strikeouts live odds page!
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