It’s been a tumultuous few days here for the MLB player props and home runs column. After a 2-0 Saturday, we had an 0-2 Sunday, and I’m eager for a chance to bounce back. Monday’s slate is a small one, so don’t expect too much action from me. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Monday, August 5. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, August 5
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Ketel Marte
He’s back! The Cleveland Guardians have brought LHP Logan Allen back from AAA, and that’s great news for those of us hunting out sharp home run bets. Allen is coughing up 1.9 xHR/9 over 87.1 IP this season. His 5.54 xERA (4th percentile) and .274 xBA (13th) are both dismal and point to value that MLB player prop bettors can exploit.
Allen’s struggles have mostly come against opposite-handed hitters. He has allowed RHBs to slash .298/.369/.547 with 14 home runs this season. This favors Ketel Marte, a switch-hitter who is slashing a monstrous .357/.413/.682 with 14 home runs versus LHPs.
Marte is one of the hottest batters in baseball, slashing .358/.413/.704 over the last 30 days and .391/.391/.783 over the last seven. He should cook against Allen, who has been called up not for his improved performance but for injuries to Cleveland’s other starting pitchers.
With Marte averaging a home run every four games, you’d think his home run odds would be closer to +300 (25%), especially in this matchup. Instead, we can get him at +500 (16.7%) on BetMGM, where he is also -125 just to tally multiple bases. I recommend spreading two units across those markets this evening.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Ketel Marte +500 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Ketel Marte home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Steven Kwan
On the other side of tonight’s game between the Guardians and D-backs, it’s RHP Zac Gallen taking the bump. Gallen hasn’t been great this year, as he owns a 4.13 xERA (45th percentile) and a .257 xBA (32nd), but we’re trusting him and Arizona bullpen to limit Cleveland’s lead-off batter on the total bases market.
Kwan, a lefty, fares worse against RHPs. His .333 BA dips to .318 against them. Likewise, Gallen fares better against LHBs, with his .241 BA dropping to .212. But the bulk of our edge here comes from taking a market-based approach, not a projections-based one. Take a look where Kwan’s odds of staying under 1.5 total bases are across the market:
If you don’t know what a market-based betting means, check out our guide to sports betting strategy. In this case, we have an edge because Kwan is -145 to stay under 1.5 strikeouts at BetMGM but will cost you between -151 and -182 almost everywhere else. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging -173. We’re scoring just enough positive expected value (+EV) here to warrant a wager.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Steven Kwan Under 1.5 Total Bases -145 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Steven Kwan total strikeouts live odds page!
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