After a solid Sunday slate that saw us cash a bunch of tickets, we’re down to a three-game Monday slate. I have a few picks for this evening’s action, and you can find my full card in the Discord. Let’s dig into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Monday, July 1. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, July 1
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Yainer Diaz
The Houston Astros are visiting the Toronto Blue Jays in the first game of today’s slate, and it’s RHP Yariel Rodriguez on the bump for Toronto. Rodriguez has seen limited action this year, but his 5.78 xERA and .287 xBA allowed in 16.2 IP certainly aren’t good. He is also coughing up 1.4 xHR/9 through that sample.
Again, it’s a limited sample, but RHBs are slashing .342/.457/.579 versus Rodriguez this year. Once Rodriguez departs, Toronto must trust a bullpen that ranks 30th in home runs allowed (50) and 21st in hits allowed (276). Everything sets up well for Yainer Diaz.
Diaz is having a great season, but it’s largely been by way of contact, not power. His .295 xBA (94th percentile) is ahead of both Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Of course, those two have higher xSLGs, but Diaz is still third on the Astros in the metric at .445 (69th). His refusal to walk, demonstrated by his 3.8% walk rate (5th), makes him that much better for prop bettors.
Let’s trust Diaz for a home run (+560 at FanDuel) and for multiple bases (-110 at BetMGM). It’s not great home run weather in Toronto today, and Diaz has only six batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences here, so I’m far more excited about the total bases side of this play. Still, I’m not missing out if he goes yard.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Yainer Diaz +560 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Yainer Diaz home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Austin Gomber
The Milwaukee Brewers are in Denver tonight to face the Colorado Rockies. It’s LHP Austin Gomber taking the bump for Colorado tonight, and while he was an absolute pumpkin last year, he has put together a steady season in 2024. Still, his 4.87 xERA (17th percentile) and .275 xBA (14th aren’t exactly good).
Gomber isn’t a strikeout pitcher, either. He owns a 16.3% strikeout rate (12th percentile), which, while an improvement over last year’s 14.4%, still isn’t good. His strikeout prop is trading at 3.5, a number he cleared in only two of five starts in June. Gomber is 3-3 to the under when playing in Coors this year but last went over in early May.
The under 3.5 is a decent bet today at but only at two books. You’ll find it trading for odds of between +110 and -110 at virtually every public book. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging -101. As a result, the off-market +115 at Hard Rock is offering positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
Here, Gomber’s true odds of staying under 3.5 total strikeouts are calculated to be +109. Most public books are under that number, but not Hard Rock and SuperBook.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 1,158 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 2 or higher with at least two hours before game start. We cashed 662 of them, which has been good for a very nice 12.4% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Austin Gomber Under 3.5 Total Strikeouts +115 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, check out our Austin Gomber total strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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