The MLB rolls on with a solid Monday slate. There are a number of beatable starting pitchers on the mound this evening. Of course, RHP Paul Skenes isn’t one of them. In this article, we’ll discuss two of my top bets from today’s full card, which you can find on Discord or our expert picks page. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Monday, July 29. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, July 29
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Vinnie Pasquantino
The Kansas City Royals have been one of the most fun teams to watch (and root for!) this season, largely due to the breakout of shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. but Witt couldn’t be carrying this team on his own, and sluggers like Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino deserve plenty of credit.
The Royals are at Guaranteed Rate Field today to face the tanking Chicago White Sox and RHP Chris Flexen. Everything about the matchup, from the venue to the pitcher, sets up favorably for Vinnie Pasquantino.
For one, Flexen is allowing 1.3 xHR/9 this season, but that number jumps to 1.6 xHR/9 at Guaranteed Rate. A week and a half ago, Pasquantino hit a sac fly against Flexen that would’ve been a home run in Chicago. Pasquantino has 14 xHR in Guaranteed Rate this year.
Further, Pasquantino is slashing .264/.332/.432 versus RHPs with 30 extra-base hits and nine home runs. Meanwhile, LHBs are slashing .272/.330/.561 versus Flexen with 25 extra-base hits and 12 home runs.
Once Flexen exits, Pasquantino gets a Chicago bullpen that ranks 27th both in hits allowed (396) and home runs allowed (52). I trust him for multiple bases (+100 at BetMGM) and a home run (+375 at Fanatics).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Vinnie Pasquantino +375 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Vinnie Pasquantino home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jose Quintana
The New York Mets will host the Minnesota Twins tonight, and it’s LHP Jose Quintana taking the bump for them. I’m a big skeptic of the 35-year-old southpaw, as his 4.02 ERA masks a much worse 5.22 xERA (7th percentile). The odds of him getting knocked out of this game earlier are higher than the books would have you believe, especially versus this Twins team.
The Twins are pretty good at avoiding strikeouts. On the year, they rank 10th in strikeouts taken per game (8), and, since June 1st, they rank fourth in strikeout rate versus LHPs (19%). Meanwhile, Quintana’s 18.6% strikeout rate (22nd percentile) is fairly low, and he is averaging just 0.8 strikeouts per inning.
Enough of my projection-based notes — we’re getting an edge here by taking a market-based approach, too. Quintana is trading at -115 to stay under 4.5 strikeouts on BetMGM, but most other books have this one between -120 and -140. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists him at -135. These factors point to positive expected value (+EV) at BetMGM:
To spot +EV, OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the market. It then calculates the breakeven price for each wager, which we call “true odds.” After that, we can estimate how much expected value we’re getting.
With this bet, the model tells us that Quintana’s true odds of staying under 4.5 total strikeouts come in at -118, which is beating the line at BetMGM. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable.
If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page: As of today, our model had identified 1,965 total strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 1 or higher. Of those bets, 1,104 were winners, yielding those who tailed for the suggested amount a 10.4% ROI!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Jose Quintana Under 4.5 Strikeouts -115 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Jose Quintana total strikeouts live odds page!
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