Let’s go — I went 2-0 last Saturday with winning tickets for Roddery Munoz and Gunnar Henderson, bringing us to 4-0 since last Friday (and 5-0 if you count Sunday’s Brandon Nimmo standalone London prop). Can we stay hot on today’s relatively small slate? Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Monday, June 10. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, June 10
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Carlos Rodon
The New York Yankees are visiting the Kansas City Royals after this weekend’s home series against the Los Angeles Dodgers produced plenty of memorable highlights. It’s LHP Carlos Rodon on the mound today, and while he sports an 8-2 record with a 3.02 ERA, I’m not all that impressed by his year-over-year improvement.
Last season, Rodon went 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA, but his 5.34 xERA suggests he got unlucky. His strikeout rate also cratered to 22.4% after hovering in the 33% range over the two previous seasons. This year, Rodon owns a 4.24 xERA (36th percentile), which, while an improvement over last season, isn’t as massive as what we see with his ERA. His strikeout rate has stayed mostly the same at 23.7%.
The matchup with the Royals is a tricky one. They rank fourth in strikeout rate against LHPs (18.8%) and fourth in total strikeouts taken per game (7), which drops to a league-low at home (6.1). That drop is likely thanks in part to Kauffman Stadium, which is the worst ballpark for strikeouts by park factors. With Rodon more beatable than some give him credit for and a very tough situation on tap, fading him is an attractive bet tonight.
Rodon’s odds of staying under 5.5 strikeouts vary from +115 to -113 across the public books. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one priced at +106. While there isn’t a ton of market-based value here, the +115 at Hard Rock is rendering with positive expected value (+EV) in our market-based MLB betting model:
The tool works by estimating a breakeven point for all bets (called true odds). It does so by indexing the odds from across the market and adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more. In this case, we see the true odds are +107, beating the lines available at Hard Rock, SuperBook, Fanatics and a few other sites.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. But how profitable, you ask? You can see for yourself on our results page. Over a 1,579-bet sample for total strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 1 or higher two hours before game start, 889 bets won, good for a 10.4% ROI. The model found 99 winners at Hard Rock for a 12.7% ROI as well, so I’m feeling pretty good about the number we’re getting today.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts +115 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, check out our Carlos Rodon total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Daulton Varsho
Today’s slate is not a good one for home runs. Two of the best offenses to target, the Royals and Yankees, are playing in Kansas City. While both Carlos Rodon and Seth Lugo have given up plenty of expected home runs this season, those numbers dip significantly at Kauffman Stadium. We’re instead fading an awful RHP Colin Rea against a similarly awful Toronto Blue Jays team.
Despite his 3.53 ERA, Rea has been atrocious. His 5.56 xERA (7th percentile) and .296 xBA (5th) are terrible. He has coughed up 8 actual and 8.1 expected home runs this season, but if he played every game at his home stadium of American Family Field, he would’ve coughed up 12 dingers. Opposite-handed batsmen have been the issue for Rea, as they are slashing .266/.342/.489 against him with 16 extra-base hits and seven home runs.
The problem for us is that the Blue Jays do not have a good left-handed batter. Outfielder Daulton Varsho is the closest thing they’ve got to one. Varsho leads the team in both actual (10) and expected (9) home runs, and 10 of his batted balls would’ve counted as home runs in Milwaukee. Varsho is slashing .201/.287/.465 against RHPs with 21 extra-base hits and nine home runs. While the power is encouraging, the batting average is not. Varsho’s .174 xBA (1st percentile) is, well, not good.
Still, on a short slate, Varsho is our best home run bet today. I’m backing him for over 1.5 total bases (+145 at FanDuel) and a home run (+550 at BetMGM). It’s certainly a plug-your-nose play, which is why I’m limiting my total exposure to three-quarters of a unit.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Daulton Varsho +550 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Daulton Varsho home run live odds page!
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