Saturday’s article scored a 1-1 split, easily cashing an under for Tommy Henry but losing an over for Christian Yelich, who just couldn’t capitalize against Randy Vasquez. Fortunately for us, we’ve got a pair of pumpkins on the mound in Roddery Munoz and Patrick Corbin today, and I’ll have some more picks in the Discord. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Monday, June 24. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, June 24
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Vinnie Pasquantino
I’m giving my cousin Vinnie a call because it’s long past time that we hit a home run bet. This is the perfect spot for Vinnie Pasquantino to go yard — he’ll take on RHP Roddery Munoz, who is giving up 2.97 xHR/9. He sports a 7.00 xERA, second-worst among all eligible pitchers, to go with a .298/.375/.772 slash line allowed to LHBs. That includes 11 extra-base hits and eight home runs.
Although the Kansas City Royals have been a fun story all season, most of the hype has surrounded superstar Bobby Witt Jr. However, Pasquantino, the guy who bats behind him, has also put together an impressive resume. Pasquantino sports a .267 xBA (68th percentile) and .472 xSLG.
The downside here is that Pasquantino has only 8.7 xHR to his name this season. That includes just seven batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Kauffman Stadium. The silver lining is that the MLB weather report calls for 11 mph winds out of the stadium, so while this park isn’t great for home runs, it should be better for than than usual tonight.
I’m targeting Pasquantino to get multiple bases (+105 at DraftKings) and to go yard (+475 at Fanatics). The stadium is a serious drawback, but the combination of the pitching matchup and favorable odds make this my top home run pick today. Let’s divide a unit between the aforementioned markets.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Vinnie Pasquantino +475 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Vinnie Pasquantino home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Roddery Munoz
If you thought we were done roasting RHP Roddery Munoz, you were wrong. It’s difficult to underscore just how bad the 24-year-old rookie has been in his first 29.2 innings. He ranks 56th among all pitchers in total xHR allowed at 9.9, which ties him with RHP Tyler Glasnow, who has thrown 100 innings.
Even though Munoz can get shelled on any given night, he has still pitched no fewer than four innings (and no more than six) across six appearances. He is averaging exactly five strikeouts per start on a solid 23.6% strikeout rate (60th percentile), but we’re fading him in a difficult matchup tonight.
Munoz draws the Kansas City Royals, who rank third in strikeouts taken per game (7) but lead the MLB in strikeouts taken per game at home (6). While Kauffman Stadium may not be good for home runs, it’s worse for strikeouts, as it ranks 30th in park factors for them.
Munoz’s strikeout prop is trading at a reasonably fair 3.5. The under will cost you between -114 and -135 at just about every public book. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this at -144. With FanDuel hanging an off-market -108, we can get plenty of positive expected value (+EV) at their site:
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
In this example, Munoz’s true odds of staying under 3.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -115 (53.5%), a number is beating the price available at the aforementioned books.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has found 1,114 bets with an OS Rating of two or higher with at least two hours before game start. How many of those bets won? A very nice 636, good for a steady 12.5% ROI. This includes 94 winners and a 16.8% ROI at FanDuel alone.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Roddery Munoz Under 3.5 Total Strikeouts -108 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Roddery Munoz total strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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