Happy Monday! While it’s not the busiest MLB slate of all time, it should be a profitable one. We have a pair of exploitable pitchers on the mound in RHP Kyle Gibson and RHP Ryne Nelson — and for more of my notes on today’s starters, you can check out my slate breakdown. Let’s dive into today’s MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Monday, June 3.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, June 3
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Grayson Rodriguez
The Toronto Blue Jays have been good at avoiding strikeouts this season. They rank fourth in strikeouts taken per game (7.22). While that hasn’t translated into them, you know, winning consistently, their plate discipline should help them catch back up in the AL Wild Card race.
It’s RHP Grayson Rodriguez on the bump opposite Toronto today. He owns a very solid 3.53 ERA that his 3.79 xERA suggests is mostly sustainable. However, his 5.48 ERA on the road is a concern. While Rodriguez sports a 27.9% strikeout rate (80th percentile), he averages just 5.1 IP per road start, making it tricky to rack up a ton of total strikeouts.
Rodriguez’s strikeout prop is trading at 5.5 today. While most books have the under priced between -115 and -135, FanDuel is hanging an outlier -108. That’s good enough for this bet to be trading with positive expected value (+EV) in our market-based MLB betting model:
What do these numbers mean? The -108 at FanDuel is a better price than what our model estimates a fair price for this bet to be (-114), which means a wager on the under should be profitable over the long term.
We can tell how profitable this bet should be over the long term by using our results page. All total strikeout prop bets with an OS Rating of 2 or higher two hours before game start had an 11.2% ROI over a 1,014-bet sample. At FanDuel, they had a 19.6% ROI over a 140-bet sample.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 Strikeouts -108 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Grayson Rodriguez total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker and the Houston Astros will get to tee off against RHP Kyle Gibson and the St. Louis Cardinals at home tonight. While Gibson has put together a solid 2.84 ERA, his 5.24 xERA is far less impressive. Gibson’s .272 xBA and .468 xSLG are similarly bad, but it’s his 8.4 xHR allowed — and his 9 xHR allowed in Minute Maid Park — that get me the most excited.
Gibson, a righty, has been worse against opposite-handed batters this year. He has coughed up a .233/.322/.465 slash line to them with 16 extra-base hits and six home runs.
Pitchers on both sides must contend with some seriously hitter-friendly conditions. The MLB weather report calls for 14 mph winds out through center field with 86-degree temperatures and 70% humidity.
We haven’t even talked about Kyle Tucker yet, but I don’t need to say much — his stats do most of the talking. Tucker’s .284 xBA (85th percentile) and .568 xSLG (97th) are elite. He is slashing .289/.422/.644 versus RHPs as well.
Tucker has mashed 19 actual and 14 expected home runs this year, with 19 of his batted the balls good enough to clear the fence in Houston. He also has 14 home runs and 20 extra-base hits against RHPs. Back him to go yard (+430 at FanDuel) and get multiple bases (+115 at DraftKings).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Kyle Tucker +430 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Kyle Tucker home run live odds page!
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