The MLB rolls on with a busy Monday slate. Those hoping to catch a game on television this evening should note that only one contest, Phillies at Mets, is streaming on ESPN+. I’m not a fan of that spot for MLB player props, though — this evening, I recommend getting some action on a few other bets, including two home run picks and two bets from our MLB betting model. Want to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You can get your first week or month for 50% off — keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, May 13
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Bryan Reynolds
The Pittsburgh Pirates will take on RHP Colin Rea and the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. Although Rea’s unblemished 3-0 record and solid 3.29 ERA look good, the 33-year-old starting pitcher owns a dismal 5.77 xERA with a .304 xBA allowed. Let’s bet on his luck to run out today.
Rea has been awful against opposite-handed batters this year, allowing them to slash .267/.330/.477 with seven extra-base hits and five home runs. Bryan Reynolds, a switch-hitter, is slashing .333/.333/.500 against Rea over six at-bats.
The matchup with Rea gives Reynolds a chance to bounce back as a lefty batter. He is slashing a dismal .187/.310/.290 against RHPs this season after slashing .252/.338/.483 against them a season ago.
Reynolds’ advanced stats are still great even if they’re not as good as they were last year. The 29-year-old sports a .266 xBA and .458 xSLG with four actual and 4.8 expected home runs. Six of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences of Milwaukee’s American Family Field.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases +116 at Caesars & Home Run +550 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Bryan Reynolds total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Shota Imanaga
The Chicago Cubs will visit the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park this evening. LHP Shota Imanaga, who, to this point in the season, has been an unstoppable force, will line up against the MLB’s third-best batting order by xwOBA. Imanaga boasts an elite 1.08 ERA and a 2.31 xERA (94th percentile) to back it up. He is a perfect 3-0 on the road with an even better 0.48 ERA.
Still, the MLB betting model recommends fading Imanaga in today’s matchup — at least on the strikeout market. Sure, his 26.9 strikeout rate (76th percentile) is impressive, and sure, Atlanta’s bats rank 17th in strikeouts taken per game (8.7), but we’ve seen him struggle against good lineups before: Imanaga tallied only three strikeouts against the Los Angeles Dodgers. That said, our model doesn’t care about any of those reasons — it only cares that we’re scoring positive expected value (+EV) at FanDuel:
We can only buy Imanaga to stay under 5.5 strikeouts for -136 at FanDuel — no other public book comes close to that price. They’ve all got this one priced between -155 and -180, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, listing it for a whopping -199.
The model identifies the under 5.5 as a +EV bet because of that market disparity. It uses the odds from across the sports betting landscape to estimate the breakeven odds (called true odds) for each bet, which, for this wager, are -150.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts -136 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Shota Imanaga total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Salvador Perez
I follow a relatively simple home run betting strategy. It all begins by looking at the market for the simple reason that there’s no good bet without a good number, and our MLB +EV betting tools make that easy. In this case, we’re getting Salvador Perez at odds of +440 at FanDuel despite every other book having this one between +425 and +255.
Perez also stands out for projections-based reasons. His Kansas City Royals will take on the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park tonight, but the MLB weather report calls for relatively clear skies, so I don’t expect the roof to be closed. While T-Mobile Park is infamous for suppressing power, it’s only 14th by park factors for home runs (104) with the roof open.
Perez has been unstoppable this year, recording a .309 xBA (95th percentile) and .614 xSLG (98th) to go with eight actual and 10 expected home runs. Nine of his batted balls would’ve gone yard at T-Mobile Park.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Salvador Perez +440 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Salvador Perez home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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