The MLB rolls on with a loaded Monday slate, and tonight, I recommend betting on a handful of MLB player props, including two home run picks and two bets from our MLB betting model. Hoping to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You can get half off your first week or month… just keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, May 20
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Lars Nootbaar
The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Baltimore Orioles tonight, and it’s RHP Dean Kremer on the mound for the visitors. While Kremer has put together some solid numbers on occasion this year, he has also allowed the most expected home runs (10.5) and sports a 5.24 xERA.
Kremer has struggled with power allowed to both lefty and righty batsmen. Lefties are slashing .177/.250/.418 with nine extra-base hits and five home runs. Righties are slashing .202/.255/.360 with four. His xSLG allowed (.504) is the highest of all starters on the evening slate.
We’re targeting Lars Nootbaar, a lefty, due to his numbers against RHPs and his expected stats. Nootbaar is slashing .232/.364/.451 versus RHPs, which is solid, but his .275 xBA (79th percentile) and .490 xSLG (83rd percentile) are truly impressive.
While Nootbaar has mashed only four actual home runs, his 4.2 expected home runs suggest he has gotten a bit unlucky. It’s true that only four of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences at Busch Stadium, but with 85-degree weather and 51% humidity in the MLB weather report tonight, he should benefit from hitter-friendly conditions.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 Total Bases +150 at DraftKings & Home Run +675 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, check out our Lars Nootbaar total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Ben Lively
The Cleveland Guardians get to host the New York Mets tonight and are expected to roll with RHP Ben Lively. Lively sports a good 3.06 ERA, but his 4.21 xERA (4.21) suggests he’s been getting a bit lucky. Likewise, Lively’s 23.1% strikeout rate (56th percentile) is way up from last year’s (20.6%). I doubt his strong start to the season is sustainable.
This evening, our MLB betting model recommends fading Lively on the strikeout market. The Mets rank 10th in strikeouts taken per game (7.7), but they have been less aggressive on the road, where they rank fifth (7.5). There’s no such thing as a good bet without a good number, and we’re getting enough positive expected value (+EV) at Fanatics to warrant a wager:
You’ll only find Lively to stay under 4.5 strikeouts priced at -115 on Fanatics; every other public book has this bet priced between -119 and -143. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists this wager for far less friendly odds of -146.
This line renders as a +EV bet at Fanatics because of that market disparity. Our MLB betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds).
If you can find a bet trading for odds longer than its true odds, you know it’s a +EV bet. Our tools can help you estimate how much to wager (see bet size) based on the Kelly Criterion and your bankroll.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Ben Lively Under 4.5 Strikeouts -115 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Ben Lively total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Anthony Rizzo
The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners will do battle in the Bronx tonight. It’s RHP Logan Gilbert taking the bump for the Mariners this evening, and our tools recommend getting some action on Anthony Rizzo to go yard against him. Rizzo is trading at +750 at Caesars and Fanatics to go yard tonight but is between +725 and +520 at other public books. Pinnacle has him at +704.
To be clear, there isn’t a ton of edge with this bet — the true odds clock in at only +692, but that’s still beating the price we can get at the aforementioned books by a wide enough margin to justify putting some action down. Bets like this one won’t win every night, but if you’re playing anything with odds of +750, you don’t need every bet to hit to profit.
There are some projection-based reasons for backing Rizzo tonight. Gilbert has allowed 6.5 expected home runs, which ranks a not-great 36th among all pitchers. Rizzo has mashed seven actual and 5.7 expected home runs this season, including six batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Yankee Stadium. I have enough faith in our tools and in Rizzo to justify a small wager on him to go yard tonight.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Anthony Rizzo +750 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, check out our Anthony Rizzo home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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