We’re 4-0 over the last two days after yesterday’s article cashed Bobby Witt Jr. over 1.5 total bases at -139 (and to hit a home run at +333, which you could’ve boosted to +500 at DraftKings if you took my advice) and Aaron Nola under 4.5 strikeouts at +115. Until the NFL regular season returns, you can get The Profit Isaiah, which includes all my picks for every sport and my premium Discord, for $17.30 per month (33% off your first three months!) with code “VIBES”. You can find the results of all tracked bets here. Without further ado, let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Saturday, August 17. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, August 17
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Marcell Ozuna
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The Atlanta Braves are on the west coast this weekend. They’re taking on the lowly Los Angeles Angels and RHP Griffin Canning. While Canning has done a better job of limiting power this year than last, he certainly isn’t unbeatable.
Canning has allowed 19.8 xHR in 128.2 IP, good for a rate of 1.4 xHR/9. Although Canning has held RHBs to a .257/.312/.407 slash line with nine home runs, Marcell Ozuna is a different beast.
For starters, Ozuna is slashing .295/.359/.592 versus RHBs with 30 of his 35 home runs coming against them. All of his peripherals check out, too — he sports a .294 xBA (94th percentile) and .615 xSLG (99th). He has destroyed four-seam fastballs for a .620 xSLG and a 58.1% hard-hit rate. Canning throws four-seamers 36.2% of the time.
The peripherals for home runs are good, too. Ozuna has mashed 38.5 xHR on the year (0.31 per game) with 36 xHR in Angel Stadium (0.3 per game). At those rates, you’d expect his home run odds to sit at about +225 (30.7%). They don’t.
Well, Ozuna’s odds are close to that threshold at some books, but you can find this prop for odds of +250 at (28.7%) ESPNBET and +280 (26.3%) at Unibet. And although DraftKings is charging +215 (31.8%) for Ozuna to go yard, they’re offering a +200 odds surge again today, which means we can buy Ozuna at +415 (19.4%). I’m also getting some action on Ozuna to get multiple bags (-115 at Fanatics).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Marcell Ozuna +280 at Unibet or +415 Boosted at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Marcell Ozuna home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Chris Sale
We’re sticking with tonight’s late-slate game between the Braves and Angels for today’s MLB player prop pick. LHP Chris Sale is scheduled to take the bump for Atlanta, and although he has been incredible this year, it actually looks like a good day to fade him — at least on the strikeout market.
The Angels aren’t good at much, but they rank 13th-best in strikeouts taken per game this year (8.32). They also rank sixth-best in strikeout rate versus LHPs this year (19.7%). This bet starts to pop when you look at what the Angels have done since the All-Star Break, though: they lead the MLB in strikeout rate versus LHPs (16.2%)!
Of course, Sale is an electric pitcher with a 33.3% strikeout rate (96th percentile). While he was able to rack up double-digit strikeouts in his last two outings, he is averaging only eight strikeouts per game. Further, the 35-year-old veteran is coming off a 107-pitch outing on Monday, so it would be fair to expect some fatigue here.
Let’s look at how Sale’s strikeout odds have moved using our sports betting research tools:
After a handful of books opened the bidding on the under 7.5 at -135 or so, they quickly lengthened his odds into the +110-to-+100 range.
Since then, most books have flipped well under even, with several even getting back to the -135 range where this prop opened.
Well, most books except BetMGM, where you can still buy this prop for -105. While it’s not as nice as the plus-money line you could’ve got before 9 a.m. this morning, it’s still a great deal.
Regardless of whether you prefer a market- or projections-based sports betting strategy, this Sale prop looks like a winner.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Chris Sale Under 7.5 Strikeouts -105 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Chris Sale total strikeouts live odds page!
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