College football might be back, but we can’t forget about baseball! It’s another busy day in the MLB, which means it’s another day for the betting experts at OddsShopper. You can sign up for The Profit Isaiah, which includes all my picks for every sport and my premium Discord, for $17.30 per month (33% off your first three months!) with code “VIBES”. You can even find the results of all tracked bets here. Without further ado, let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Saturday, August 24. For the rest of my notes on today’s action (and another free play), check out my slate breakdown on X!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, August 24
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Joc Pederson
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I don’t like to write about games on the earlier side of the afternoon, but I’ve got only one home run pick today, and it’s against RHP Kutter Crawford taking the mound at Fenway Park.
At first glance, Crawford’s 4.25 ERA may appear reasonable. His 4.02 xERA even suggests he is getting unlucky. However, Crawford also leads the majors in expected home runs allowed with 30.2.
We’re locking in some action on LHB Joc Pederson opposite Crawford. Pederson boasts a .280 xBA (88th percentile) and .518 xSLG (93rd) this year to go with 19.2 xHR, good for 0.19 per game.
Pederson is mostly just a platoon bat at this point of his career, but, when we filter out his 23 at-bats versus LHPs, we’re left with a dominant .290/.401/.554 slash line. Pederson is also slashing .351/.513/.737 over the last 30 days.
Crawford has less dramatic splits, but he has allowed LHBs to slash .213/.275/.430 with 17 of his 28 home runs allowed. He also has an 8.24 ERA in August, largely due to him allowing 2.8 HR/9. Yikes.
I spotted Pederson’s home run odds at +380 (20.8%) on Unibet, which is a massively off-market number and is worth adding to your card for that price — if you can access that book in your state. However, even the +325 (23.5%) at BetMGM has some value. I bought Pederson there and to tally multiple bases for +108 at BetRivers (+105 at BetMGM).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Joc Pederson +380 at Unibet
For the best price currently available, check out our Joc Pederson home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Elly De La Cruz
The Cincinnati Reds are in Pittsburgh to play the Pirates this evening, and for whatever reason, the Pirates are allowing RHP Jake Woodford to take the start. Woodford has been atrocious, posting an 0-5 record and a 6.67 ERA over 27 IP.
While Woodford has likely been getting unlucky, as his 5.48 xERA is a fair bit better than what he has actually produced, there are still major issues with his game.
Woodford sports a .297 xBA and a 4.8% walk rate, both of which are perfect for our purposes, as batters getting on base against him are almost always doing so because of a hit.
Speedster Elly De La Cruz stands out as a sharp player to target against Woodford. As De La Cruz is slashing .282/.358/.552 versus RHPs, Woodford is allowing LHBs to slash .263/.317/.579. Yum.
You’ll find De La Cruz’s over 1.5 total bases prop trading at -105 on BetMGM. Every other book has a worse number, with most in the -110 to -125 range. If you like to use a market-based sports betting strategy, note that Pinnacle has this one at -113.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Elly De La Cruz total bases live odds page!
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