What an oof — yesterday’s card went a dismal 2-10 (-6.1U), so while we’re still up over the last week, our margin just got a lot tighter. I’m confident that we’ll bounce back today (we already cashed an Aaron Judge over), so make sure to check the expert picks page for every bet. You can access all of our picks for 50% off with code “POSITIVE” at checkout. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Saturday, August 3. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, August 3
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Manny Machado
I don’t see a ton of value on the home run prop markets this evening, but I do see some value in backing Manny Machado to go yard tonight. Machado will take on the Colorado Rockies and RHP Tanner Gordon, who has struggled mightily over 5.1 IP this season. Gordon has coughed up a brutal .462/.475/.949 slash line to RHBs with five home runs in just 39 at-bats.
While it’s true that Colorado’s home park, Coors Field, tends to skew stats against their starting pitchers, Gordon gave up four home runs at Citi Field, and two of his three starts have been on the road in pitcher-friendly parks.
Tonight, Gordon will take the bump in another pitcher-friendly stadium, Petco Park, but this stadium ranks eighth in park factors for home runs to RHBs like Manny Machado. He is slashing .278/.320/.444 at home this season.
Machado has mashed 16.1 xHR on the year, including 17 xHR in San Diego. He is also slashing .277/.315/.436 against RHPs with 11 of his 17 actual home runs coming against them.
I’ve got Machado to get multiple bases (+100 at BetMGM) and to go yard (+475 at BetMGM). He is slashing a monstrous .455/.455/1.045 over the last week with four home runs — let’s hope he can stay hot tonight.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Manny Machado +475 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Manny Machado home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Mitch Keller
The Arizona Diamondbacks will visit the Pittsburgh Pirates today, and it’s RHP Mitch Keller on the bump for the home team. Keller has been pretty average this year, sporting a 3.85 xERA (55th percentile) and .241 xBA (53rd). His strikeout production has been slightly below average as he owns a 21% strikeout rate (39th) and is averaging exactly 8 K/9. We’re fading him on this market tonight.
My projection-based reasoning for this bet stems largely from Keller’s opponent, the D-backs. Arizona ranks fifth in strikeout rate versus RHPs this season (19.9%) and third since June 1st (18.2%). They’re even second since the All-Star Break (15.2%) and have shown no signs of slowing down. It’s a different story versus LHPs, but their ability to avoid punchouts against RHPs like Keller is all we need to worry about.
But those are my projection-based notes — we’re also getting a big edge through a market-based approach. If you don’t know what that means, read our guide to sports betting strategy. Keller is tradinga at +125 to stay under 4.5 strikeouts at DraftKings, but he’ll cost you between +123 and +110 everywhere else. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this bet priced at +113. We’re scoring more than enough positive expected value (+EV) here to warrant a wager:
To find +EV, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from across the market. It then calculates the breakeven price for each wager, which we call “true odds.” With that number, we can estimate how much expected value we’re getting.
With this bet, the model calculates Keller’s true odds of staying under 4.5 total strikeouts to be +119, beating the price at DraftKings enough to warrant a wager. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable.
But how profitable? Check out our results page: Our model had identified 4,202 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 2 at any time this year. Of those, 2,392 were winners, producing an 11% ROI for bettors who tailed!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Mitch Keller Under 4.5 Strikeouts +125 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Mitch Keller total strikeouts live odds page!
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