After yesterday’s brutal 0-2 showing (0-3 if you count the Jonathan India prop that I posted), I’m looking to bounce back. I think we got unlucky — India had two batted balls with an xBA over .800 — but regardless, a losing day is a losing day. I’ll spotlight two picks here, but you can find the full card on Discord or our expert picks page. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Saturday, July 20.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, July 20
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Joc Pederson
It’s a great spot to trust veteran Joc Pederson. Although he is a possible sell candidate as the trade deadline approaches, I expect a solid game from him here versus RHP Kyle Hendricks and the Chicago Cubs. Hendricks sports an embarrassing 6.78 ERA over 70.1 IP, and while his 4.98 xERA (13th percentile) isn’t quite as bad, it still isn’t very good.
Hendricks is allowing 1.6 xHR/9 this season, and LHBs have accounted for the bulk of them. They’re slashing .310/.359/.528 against him this season. Pederson is no stranger to Hendricks, as he is slashing .227/.292/.636 over a 22 at-bat sample that includes five extra-base hits and two home runs.
Unlike Hendricks, Pederson is having an excellent season despite his veteran status. Not only is he slashing a phenomenal .284/.379/.507 against RHPs with 12 of his 13 home runs, but he also owns a .257 xBA (58th percentile) and .444 xSLG (67th). The 91.8 mph average exit velo (88th), 11.5% barrel rate (80th) and 73.3 mph average bat speed (77th) all demonstrate he is still hitting well.
We’re at Wrigley Field for this one, where the weather calls for 9.2 mph winds blowing in, but the 76-degree temperatures and 58% humidity should help Pederson somewhat. Even if Pederson can’t go yard in this spot, he should be good for two-plus bases (+140 at BetMGM).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Joc Pederson +490 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, check out our Joc Pederson home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Justin Wrobleski
The Los Angeles Dodgers are running out of starting pitchers. That means 24-year-old LHP Justin Wrobleski will have to take the bump against the Boston Red Sox tonight in a matchup that might just be too much for the young pitcher. Wrobleski is a promising prospect, but he owns a 6.30 ERA and 7.37 xERA through two starts and 10 IP. He has just eight total strikeouts with a 19% strikeout rate.
While 10 IP is a limited sample, that’s all we’ve seen from the 24-year-old in the Show. It’s a different story in the minors, where Wrobleski has a 3.06 ERA at AA and a 4.35 ERA at AAA. Although he has a ferocious 14.8 K/9 at AAA, that drops to 8.2 at AA this year. He has just 10.1 IP at AAA, too, with 67.2 IP at AA this year.
Those are all good reasons to fade Wrobleski on the strikeout market despite Boston’s strikeout-happy lineup, but there is another source of value here, too: the market. Wrobleski clocks in at -140 at BetMGM to stay under 5.5 strikeouts while most books have him at odds of between -160 and -175 to do so. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists him at -173, which suggests there is considerable positive expected value (+EV) on the -140:
To spot +EV, OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the market. It then generates a breakeven price for each bet, which we call “true odds.” Once that’s done, we can figure out how much expected value we’re getting on that bet.
With this wager, Wrobleski’s true odds of staying under 5.5 total strikeouts are -149. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
To this point of the year, our model has identified 1,233 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 2 or higher with at least two hours until game start. We cashed 698 of those wagers for a very nice 11.4% ROI!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 Strikeouts -140 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Justin Wrobleski total strikeouts live odds page!
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