We bounced back with ease last night, cashing tickets for Rafael Devers, Ryan Feltner and Juan Soto. Soto didn’t go yard, but he got his total bases, and Devers gave us a winning home run ticket. This evening, I advise wagering on a few more MLB player props, including two home run picks and one bet from our MLB betting model. Hoping to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You can get 50% off your first week or month… just keep reading to find out how!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, May 18
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Tyler O’Neill
The Boston Red Sox (namely, Rafael Devers) delivered for us yesterday, and with the St. Louis Cardinals trotting out yet another washed-up veteran pitcher, I’m going back to the well tonight. Instead of playing Devers to go yard for a second-straight game, we’re backing righty Tyler O’Neill.
Like RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP Miles Mikolas is likely on his way out of the show. Mikolas spots a brutal 5.17 xERA (17th percentile) to go with a .299 xBA allowed (7th). He has surrendered eight actual and 8.9 expected home runs on the season already.
Mikolas has struggled against batters no matter their handedness. Righties are slashing .317/.349/.535 against him with five home runs while lefties are slashing .305/.346/.505 with three.
Relatedly, O’Neill has been raking against both RHPs and LHPs, slashing .239/.307/.522 with eight home runs versus the former and .294/.489/.588 with two versus the latter.
Once Mikolas exits, O’Neill will face a St. Louis bullpen that ranks 13th-worst by hits allowed (144) 10th-worst by home runs allowed (18). Still, this pick ultimately comes down to O’Neill’s expected and actual production this year.
O’Neill’s overall slash line of .254/.365/.540 is impressive. While his .230 xBA (27th percentile) suggests he has gotten lucky with contact, his .529 xSLG (93rd) reveals the contact isn’t a fluke. We probably need an extra-base hit to get the over 1.5 total bases (+120 at bet365) from him, but that’s well within his range of outcomes versus Mikolas.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Tyler O’Neill Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 at bet365 & Home Run +450 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Tyler O’Neill total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: MacKenzie Gore
The Washington Nationals visit the Philadelphia Phillies tonight, and it’s young LHP MacKenzie Gore on the bump for them today. Gore sports an impressive 3.38 ERA, but his 3.79 xERA (53rd percentile) isn’t as good. His 29% strikeout rate (83rd) is strong but slightly outpaces the 25.9% he recorded last year and the 23.3% from a year before.
Tonight, our MLB betting model advises that you fade MacKenzie on the strikeout markets. Although Philadelphia is a pedestrian 16th in strikeouts taken per game (8.5), they’re third over the last three (5.3) and are a bit more conservative at home (8). But there’s no such thing as a good bet without a good number, and we’re getting enough positive expected value (+EV) at SuperBook and DraftKings to warrant a wager:
Gore’s under 6.5 strikeouts is exlusively available at -130 on SuperBook; the -135 at DraftKings isn’t far behind and still offers value, just not as much. Most public books are in the -145 to -175 range. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is at -166; DraftKings has the 5.5 for +122.
The under 6.5 is a +EV bet on these books due to that market disparity. Our MLB betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds).
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 Total Strikeouts -135 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our MacKenzie Gore total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani
Today’s MLB home run pick might be boring, but we’re getting too much value to pass up. One of the MLB’s three leaders in home runs, Shohei Ohtani has mashed 13 actual and 11.5 expected dingers, including 15 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences of his home park. He is trading at +285 at FanDuel to go yard tonight but is between +270 and +200 at other public books. Pinnacle has him at +266.
Ohtani will take on the Cincinnati Reds and RHP Graham Ashcraft. Lefty batsmen like Ohtani are slashing .315/.361/.528 against the righty pitcher this year with five home runs. Ashcraft has coughed up seven actual and 6.5 expected home runs but has allowed nine batted balls that would’ve gone as dingers at Dodger Stadium, which bodes poorly for tonight’s road matchup.
I have Ohtani for multiple bases (-105 at DraftKings) and a home run (+285 at FanDuel) on tonight’s slate. While Ashcraft’s stats are unfairly ballooned by his hitter-friendly home park, his expected numbers in L.A. are a concern, and it’s not like his 4.59 xERA (26th percentile) or his .267 xBA allowed (23rd) are all that scary. Let’s back one of the best bats in baseball to get the job done against a beatable pitcher.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani +285 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Shohei Ohtani home runs live odds page!
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