The MLB has a loaded Sunday card on tap, with most of the action getting underway in the early afternoon. With no time to waste, let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Sunday, August 25. We’re turning to tonight’s Sunday Night Baseball game between the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles.
You can sign up for The Profit Isaiah, which includes all my picks for every sport and my premium Discord, for $17.30 per month (33% off your first three months!) with code “VIBES” and all posted bets’ results are tracked here. For the rest of my notes on today’s action (and another free play), check out my slate breakdown on X!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Sunday, August 25
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adley Rutschman | Sunday Night Baseball
Need more MLB betting action? Check out our +EV MLB bets or our MLB home run betting strategy guide!
The Baltimore Orioles have a ton of exciting players. Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander have done most of the damage offensively, and rookie Jackson Holliday is looking as advertised in his second stint.
All of this is to say that catcher Adley Rutschman often gets overshadowed. However, Rutschman, a switch-hitter from Oregon State, owns a .269 xBA (78th percentile) and a .426 xSLG (62nd). While not great, those are solid numbers.
Rutschman stands out more when we look at him as a RHB. He is slashing .349/.400/.548 versus LHPs, which is important since he’ll take on LHP Yusei Kikuchi tonight. Kikuchi has been battered for .269/.316/.426 and 16 home runs by RHBs.
Rutschman is now tied for fourth in Baltimore for total home runs hit (18), and he has gone yard just once in the last 30 days. That said, he owns a dominant .391/.481/.826 slash line versus Kikuchi with three home runs.
This spot is a great chance for Rutschman to bounce back. With him trading at odds of +125 at BetMGM for multiple bases — and +900 (10%) for a home run — I can’t pass up the chance to wager on him
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adley Rutschman +380 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Adley Rutschman home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez | Sunday Night Baseball
I will fully admit that this pick is somewhat speculative, as Yordan Alvarez has missed the last two games with a neck injury. There is a chance he does not suit up, and there is also a chance he comes in as a pinch-hitter.
Fortunately for us, the house rules at BetMGM say that MLB players must start for our prop bets to have action, so we can skirt the risk of a one plate-appearance bust at their book.
Unlike Rutschman, Alvarez hasn’t hit just one home run over the last 30 days. He has hit five with a .318/.429/.534 slash line. He’ll take on RHP Dean Kremer today, against whom he is slashing .429/.600/.429 over 10 plate appearances.
While walks are always a risk to cut into Alvarez’s total base and home run production, especially against RHPs, he still owns a .275/.382/.523 slash line against them with 19 home runs.
On the other side, Kremer is allowing LHBs to slash .218/.312/.410 with 10 home runs. Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, Alvarez’s odds for a walk are -125 at BetMGM.
But with all of that said, Alvarez is trading at +120 for multiple bases and +400 for a home run at BetMGM. The same bets are trading for +120 and +391, respectively, at Pinnacle, a sharp book.
I think we’re getting too much value to pass up, especially with most public books taking action on Alvarez’s home run prop in the +300 to +350 range. Play both the bases and home run markets for the best outcome.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Yordan Alvarez total bases live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper’s +EV tools for the best +EV MLB bets today.
