Let’s go! Yesterday’s article went 2-0, cashing an over for Manny Machado and an under for Mitch Keller (with a little help from the rain), bringing the full card to 8-4 (+6.1U). Make sure to check out our expert picks to make sure that you don’t miss a thing — as we convert to the marketplace, my page should be launching early next week. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Sunday, August 4. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Sunday, August 4
MLB Home Run Pick Today: J.D. Martinez
The New York Mets have been getting very solid production out of veteran J.D. Martinez this year, especially of late. The 36-year-old slugger is slashing .375/.476/.625 over the last seven days, but he has just one home run to his name through that span. I suspect he’ll get one tonight against RHP Griffin Canning, a pitcher he has seen and gone yard against before.
The Mets are out of Citi Field and in Angel Stadium tonight, which is a huge help. Although Martinez has launched only 12 actual home runs this year, he would have 17 if he played every game in Angel Stadium.
The matchup against Canning is also quite helpful. Canning is coughing up 1.5 xHR/9 this year. Although he has fared better against RHBs than LHBs, holding righties to a .257/.313/.414 slash line, Martinez has bested Canning before.
Martinez is slashing .262/.328/.444 with eight home runs in 214 at-bats versus RHPs. More importantly, he has a .750/.800/1.750 slash line in four at-bats versus Canning.
Let’s trust Martinez to get multiple bases (+110 at DraftKings) and to go yard (+390 at FanDuel). Even if he can’t best Canning, the Angels’ bullpen has allowed the ninth-most home runs (52) this year.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: J.D. Martinez +390 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our J.D. Martinez home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Gavin Williams
The Cleveland Guardians remain at home to conclude their series versus the Baltimore Orioles, and it’s RHP Gavin Williams on the bump for them tonight. We’ve seen Williams for 29 IP this season, and he has posted a respectable 24.4% strikeout rate in those innings, up slightly from the 23.5% he recorded in 82 IP last year. Still, we’re fading him on the strikeout markets against this tricky Baltimore lineup.
The Orioles are good at avoiding strikeouts, especially against RHPs. Baltimore ranks 11th in strikeouts taken per game (8.1) and eighth in strikeout rate versus RHPs (20.5%). The last few weeks have been slightly worse for them than usual, as they slide to 11th in strikeout rate versus RHPs since the All-Star Break (20.9%), but they’ve been consistent enough for me to have faith in them.
Those are just my projection-based notes for this bet — there’s also value here we can find via a market-based approach. If you don’t know what that means, read our guide to sports betting strategy. Williams clocks in at -115 to stay under 5.5 strikeouts on ESPNBET, but he’ll cost you between -122 and -154 at every other book. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this bet priced at that -154 number. We’re scoring more than enough positive expected value (+EV) here to warrant a wager:
To find +EV, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from across the market. It then calculates the breakeven price for each wager, which we call “true odds.” With that number, we can estimate how much expected value we’re getting.
In this case, the model estimates Williams’ true odds of staying under 5.5 total strikeouts are -121, beating the price at ESPNBET. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable.
Wondering how profitable? Check out our results page: Our model had identified 4,226 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 2 at any time this year. Of those, 2,403 were winners, producing an 11% ROI for bettors who tailed!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Gavin Williams Under 5.5 Strikeouts -115 at ESPNBET
For the best price currently available, check out our Gavin Williams total strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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