All-Star Games, especially the MLB All-Star Game, are difficult to handicap. Due to large roster sizes — and the surplus of talent in the starting lineup and on the bench — you never really know how much a player will play. That would make unders attractive bets, but, unfortunately, most books won’t offer them. So, with that word of warning, let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for the 2024 All-Star Game.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today for the All-Star Game
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Jose Ramirez
Betting on anyone to hit a home run during the All-Star Game is a crapshoot, especially since you never know how the at-bats will work out. You can usually count on all the starters to get two at-bats and their designated replacements to get another two. This reduces the advantage a batter may gain from hitting early in the lineup.
Because pitchers also change so frequently in the MLB All-Star Game, picking anyone to go yard comes down to a lot of factors that are impossible for us to anticipate. We can minimize known risks, like, perhaps, a guaranteed at-bat versus RHP Paul Skenes and maximize known advantages, but most variables are unknowable in advance.
By targeting Jose Ramirez, we’re getting two at-bats that almost certainly won’t come against Skenes, since Ramirez is hitting sixth. That would normally minimize our chances of getting more at-bats, but because this is the All-Star Game, we can’t count on more than two anyway. We’re also getting a guy who has mashed 23 expected home runs at Globe Life Field in the regular season.
Oh, and we’re getting him for +1000 odds.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Jose Ramirez +1000 at BetMGM
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Bobby Witt Jr.
Sometimes a book will post a line that is disrespectful. That’s what we’ve got today with Bobby Witt Jr. at FanDuel.
Witt made the MLB All-Star Game with an exceptional batter profile. His .324 xBA (100th percentile) ranks second, behind only Shohei Ohtani (.335), putting him ahead of base-hit merchant Luis Arraez (.321), Juan Soto (.312) and batting-average leader Steven Kwan (.312).
Ohtani, Soto and Kwan are all starters, and they’re all in the top part of their orders, which means we know they’ll get at least one at-bat against their other league’s starter. With NL starter Paul Skenes allowing a .205 xBA (90th percentile), that’s a problem for the latter two.
So, what are the xBA leaders’ odds of recording a hit tonight? Ohtani (-110) has the shortest of the bunch, with Kwan (+100) not far behind. Soto (+115) is a bit more of a long shot, albeit not much of one. Arraez isn’t available at FanDuel but is -105 at DraftKings. So, Witt, with what will probably be a less unfavorable pitching matchup than Kwan and Soto, should be in that range, right?
That’s what you’d think, but it isn’t the case — at least at FanDuel. Witt clocks in at +145, just over 40%, to get a hit. Keep in mind that with Witt’s .324 xBA, a two at-bat sample should yield a hit 64.8% of the time. Of course, BBs and HBPs can complicate things, but Witt’s 6.6% walk rate (28th percentile) is quite low. Witt is just +105 for a hit at DraftKings, too.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. To Record a Hit +145 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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