It’s travel day in the MLB, which means some action in the early afternoon before minimal action in the evening. That said, there are still some betting spots for us to exploit. You can find my personal betting results here, but we’ll be talking about our +EV betting tools today. You can find their results here. Without further ado, let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Thursday, August 15. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, August 15
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Zack Wheeler
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The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Washington Nationals this evening, and they’ll turn to RHP Zack Wheeler in this spot. While Wheeler has been undeniably good this season, as his 2.78 ERA and 3.00 xERA suggest, he actually might be worth fading tonight — at least on the strikeout prop markets.
The Nats are excellent at avoiding strikeouts, and while Wheeler has been effective at producing them (see his 27.5% strikeout rate, which is in the 82nd percentile), I’m skeptical of him in this spot. The Nats have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate versus RHPs since the All-Star Break (19%) and the second-lowest since the trade deadline (15.6%).
That’s my projections-based reasoning to fade Wheeler. A look at the odds from every book reveals a market-based reason, too. If you don’t know what market-based betting is, read our guide to sports betting strategy — Wheeler’s odds of staying under 6.5 strikeouts at Fanatics are beating the market by a bunch, revealing some positive expected value (+EV):
To help you spot similar +EV bets, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from every book. Once that’s done, it generates a breakeven price for each bet called “true odds.” With that number, it estimates the expected value of every bet on the board that day.
In this case, Wheeler’s true odds of staying under 6.5 strikeouts come out to -118. That’s narrowly better than the -115 at Fanatics, but it’s wide enough to justify getting some action down. Our tools advise a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to bet $5.
These bets can yield great returns over the long run. But how much money can systematically tailing our +EV bets actually make you? Check out our results page for some insight:
As of today, our model had identified 18,061 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 0 or higher this season. Of those, a whopping 9,723 won, yielding a 5.6% ROI (imagine the compounding returns!) for those who tailed.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Strikeouts -115 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Zack Wheeler total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson
I have a handful of home run bets out tonight, but Gunnar Henderson stands out as one of the best. I was on him to get multiple bases at +150 last night, and he went out and cleared the fences. I bet he can do it again tonight, especially against a three true outcomes pitcher like RHP Nick Pivetta.
Henderson is crushing RHPs for a .296/.371/.575 slash line, 44 extra-base hits and 23 home runs. Pivetta has been stingy against LHBs this year, allowing them to hit only .193/.250/.361, but he let them slash a far less impressive .225/.288/.509 just one season ago.
Pivetta has surrendered 19.2 xHR in his 95.1 IP, good for 1.8 xHR/9. He now must deal with Camden Yards, which ranks ninth in park factors for home runs to lefties, edging out 17th-ranked Fenway. Henderson has launched 26.9 xHR this year, including 27 xHR at Camden Yards.
All of that said, this play comes down to the math. Henderson is averaging 0.22 xHR per game. His odds of +550 at DraftKings come out to a 15.4% chance of a home run, or one home run every 0.15 games. That’s ridiculous against a pitcher like Pivetta, and, once he exits, a Boston bullpen that ranks sixth in home runs allowed (60).
Helping our case even more is that today, DraftKings is offering a +200 odds surge for any home run bet. That means we can actually get Henderson at +750 (11.8%) to go yard — almost half what his rate of xHRs per game suggests the line should be. Even if Henderson can’t clear the fences, I have some action on him to get multiple bags (+140 at BetMGM), too
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson +550 (+750 Boosted!) at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Gunnar Henderson home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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