Another day, another dollar. Yesterday’s article split 1-1, but those who tailed the full card via The Profit Isaiah got a +0.34U profit. Those days won’t change our lives, but, over the long term, they do add up. You can sign up for The Profit Isaiah, which includes all my picks for every sport and my premium Discord, for $17.30 per month (33% off your first three months!) with code “VIBES”. You can even find the results of all tracked bets here. Without further ado, let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Thursday, August 22. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, August 22
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson
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I don’t know what it’ll take for the books to wake up and realize just how good of a batter Gunnar Henderson is. He is hitting .287/.374/.555 this season with 33 home runs, yet he is trading in the plus money to tally multiple bases and is +550 (15.4%) to hit a home run.
I could understand the price if Henderson were in a tricky matchup, but he isn’t. He’ll take on RHP Spencer Arrighetti, and, while he hasn’t seen him before, he is slashing a dominant .296/.371/.580 versus RHBs with 25 of his 33 home runs.
Arrighetti isn’t a bad pitcher, but he isn’t great when it comes to handling power. He is allowing 1.2 xHR/9 this season, and while some of those batted balls wouldn’t have cleared the fences at Camden Yards, his BA allowed balloons from .233 at home to .275 on the road.
Meanwhile, Henderson is slashing a dominant .277/.354/.566 at Camden Yards with 20 home runs. Henderson has launched 30 xHR at his home park to boot. His .287 xBA (92nd percentile) and .515 xSLG (93rd) both suggest his impressive slash line is quite sustainable.
With Henderson’s to hit a home run trading at +550 (15.4%) at BetMGM, we’re beating his per-game averages of 0.26 home runs per game and 0.23 expected home runs per game in Camden Yards. I also advise adding Henderson to tally multiple bases for +132 at Unibet (+120 at BetMGM), which is viable down to +115.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson +550 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Gunnar Henderson home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Spencer Schwellenbach
The Atlanta Braves are hosting the Philadelphia Phillies this evening, and they’ll trot out RHP Spencer Schwellenbach for this one. It’s Schwellenbach’s second time facing the Phillies. He lasted six innings and racked up six strikeouts in his first outing, but it was also a far less impressive Phillies lineup. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber were out.
The only remaining Phillies that Schwellenbach actually struck out in that matchup were Brandon Marsh, Bryson Stott and Johan Rojas, who should be in today’s lineup but at the tail end of it. On the year, the Phillies rank 12th in strikeout rate versus RHPs (21.6%); they have improved to seven (20.2%) since the trade deadline.
If you like to use a market-based sports betting strategy, note that Schwellenbach’s under 6.5 strikeouts is trading at -172 on Pinnacle, but you can currently get the same bet for -160 at DraftKings. Lock this one in before the line moves unfavorably.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Spencer Schwellenbach Under 6.5 Strikeouts -160 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Spencer Schwellenbach total strikeouts live odds page!
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