Well, after a 2-0 Tuesday, we put up an 0-2 Wednesday. Members of our Discord cashed Aaron Judge’s total bases, but we didn’t get either our Paul Skenes under or our Juan Soto over. Let’s bounce back on today’s condensed travel day slate as we dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Thursday, June 6. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, June 6
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Reynaldo Lopez
The Atlanta Braves will visit the Washington Nationals tonight, and after Spencer Schwellenbach got shelled (schelled? schwelled? there’s a bad joke in here, somewhere) by the Boston Red Sox, it’s RHP Reynaldo Lopez’s turn in the rotation. Lopez has been a key performer for Atlanta with a 3-2 record and 1.73 ERA. Unfortunately, those probably aren’t sustainable numbers.
Lopez’s unquestionably impressive ERA is supported a by a far less impressive 3.72 xERA (53rd percentile), which suggests he has been getting lucky. His 2.72 FIP suggests the same. While nothing points to Lopez’s 24.3 strikeout rate (64th) as unsustainable, today’s matchup with the Washington Nationals is a bit trickier than most. Washington ranks 12th in strikeouts taken per game (8) and 13th in strikeout rate versus righties (21.6%).
Most books have Lopez’s strikeout prop total set to 5.5. The under will cost you between -165 and -190 almost everywhere, but there is an outlier -160 at BetMGM. With Pinnacle and Caesars, two sharper books, charging between -190 and -250 for this prop, it’s rendering with positive expected value (+EV) in our market-based MLB betting model:
By breaking down the market, our tool estimates the true odds (a breakeven price) for the under are -174, which is a number we can beat at BetMGM, FanDuel and a few other books. Our back-tested simulations show that bets like this one are profitable over the long term. That said, Make sure to only play this line if you’re beating the -174 — otherwise, it’s not a +EV bet.
I can even tell you how profitable bets like this Lopez under have been over the long term by using our results page, which you’ll get access to as well with a subscription. Of all 749 total strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 3 or higher two hours before game start, 434 have won, yielding a 13.9% ROI. At BetMGM, those bets are up 7.6% over a 40-bet sample.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Reynaldo Lopez Under 5.5 Strikeouts -160 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Reynaldo Lopez total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Jarren Duran
The Boston Red Sox get to visit the Chicago White Sox today, a trip that usually bodes well for offensive production. The Sox are coming off a nine-run demolition of the Atlanta Braves yesterday and will look to stay hot against RHP Jake Woodford. In his only start of the year, Woodford coughed up five hits, three of which went for extra bases, and three earned runs over 4.1 IP.
It’s a minuscule sample, but Woodford’s 7.17 xERA and .328 xBA paint a grisly picture. His career stats are similarly ugly. He owns a 4.33 ERA over 189 IP. Lefty batsmen have slashed .301/.354/.477 against him with 12 home runs and 27 extra-base hits over that sample.
Enter Jarren Duran. The Sox’s leadoff batter is slashing a steady .261/.326/.447 this season, which improves to .280/.333/.527 against RHPs like Woodford. His .277 xBA (80th percentile) and .449 xSLG (70th percentile) suggest his actual slash line should be sustainable.
Duran isn’t known as a power hitter, and with just four home runs on the year, it makes sense. However, he went yard just yesterday, and he has mashed 5.8 expected home runs on the year with nine batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Guaranteed Rate Park.
One look at the MLB weather report and it becomes clear that Duran is a must-bet today. We can expect 18 mph winds blowing straight out this evening with temperatures in the 70s and 40% humidity. Let’s back Duran to go yard (+500 at FanDuel) and tally multiple bases (-120 at FanDuel).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Jarren Duran +500 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Jarren Duran home run live odds page!
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