You love to see it — yesterday’s article cashed an over for Lars Nootbaar in his first at-bat and hit on an under for Garrett Crochet. Our only other bet, a Jo Adell over, voided with him out of the lineup. Tonight, I recommend getting some action on a few more MLB player props, including one home run pick and two bets from our MLB betting model. Want to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You can get your first week or month for 50% off — keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, May 16
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Bryce Harper
The Philadelphia Phillies will square off with the New York Mets tonight, and it’s a battle between two middling pitchers: RHP Taijuan Walker (5.89 xERA) and RHP Jose Quintana (6.12 xERA). Despite the starters’ struggles, the total for this one is trading at only eight, and we can get Philadelphia’s Bryce Harper at friendly odds to tally multiple bases.
Harper is hot right now. He is coming off a three-hit game with a double and home run and is now slashing .364/.481/.682 over the last 15 days, mashing six extra-base hits and four home runs. He should stay hot against Quintana — although his slash line versus New York’s starter is a rough .143/.133/.357, most of those at-bats were in 2019. Their most recent meeting, which was last year, saw Harper record two hits, a base hit and a dinger.
We’re also backing Harper because of his impressive expected stats. His .268 xBA (69th percentile) and .502 xSLG (86th) are steady, and the fact this one is schedule for Citizens Bank Park helps us some more. The stadium ranks 11th in park factors for all batters and ninth for lefties. Harper is slashing .313/.404/.650 at his home park, with 11 extra-base hits and eight home runs.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases +125 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Bryce Harper total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Jon Berti
Early on today’s slate, the New York Yankees will visit the Minnesota Twins. With RHP Joe Ryan on the mound for Minnesota, New York could be in for a tough one. Ryan sports an impressive 2.51 ERA, and his 3.21 xERA reveals his strong start to the season is no fluke.
Today, our MLB betting model advises fading one of New York’s bats, Jon Berti. We haven’t seen much of the infielder, but his .248 xBA and .294 xSLG suggest he shouldn’t be trusted for much more than the occasional base hit. But there’s no such thing as a good bet without a good number, and we’re getting enough positive expected value (+EV) at bet365:
We can buy Berti to stay under 1.5 total bases for -190 at bet365 and nowhere else. The -194 at Caesars is the next-best number, but after that, we’re quickly getting into the -200s. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 0.5 priced at +150, and our tools estimate this bet should be priced at -234, not -190.
The 1.5 makes the card as a +EV bet for that reason. Our tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds). In this case, the true odds of this bet at -234, which is enough value for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to bet $23.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Jon Berti Under 1.5 Total Bases -190 at bet365
For the best price currently available, check out our Jon Berti total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Kyle Tucker
My home run betting strategy begins with a look at the market to see if there are any flagrantly off-market lines to exploit. Today is a relatively small slate, and nothing jumps off the board as super appealing in our MLB +EV betting tools. However, Houston’s Kyle Tucker is trading for odds of +350 at FanDuel but is +338 at Pinnacle with most public books settling on a number between +340 and +300.
Tucker gets one of Oakland’s prospects, RHP Joey Estes, on the bump today. Estes looked good in his debut, recording a 1.80 ERA and holding the Seattle Mariners to two hits and no walks. Still, Estes coughed up a home run to Cal Raleigh, and he generally struggles with opposing power hitters. He surrendered six home runs across his first three starts at AAA this year, where he also allowed lefties to slash .328/.406/.672.
Tucker is impressive in his own right. He owns a .302 xBA (93rd percentile) and a .587 xSLG (97th) with 13 actual and 9.9 expected home runs. A whopping 13 of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences at Minute Maid Park, where he is slashing .303/.442/.671 with 14 extra-base hits and seven dingers. I’m backing him for multiple bases (+106 at Caesars) and a home run (+350 at FanDuel).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Kyle Tucker +350 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Kyle Tucker home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
