Wednesday’s slate was big for us. Yesterday’s article cashed tickets for Tarik Skubal and Bryce Harper. I added a winner for Bryan Reynolds via Discord as well, all of which helped us turn a profit despite losing bets for Gunnar Henderson and Shohei Ohtani. We’re now at two days in a row with a winning home run pick. Let’s dive into my MLB player prop picks today, including one home run picks and one bet from our MLB betting model. Hoping to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You get your first week or month for half off… keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, May 23
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jack Flaherty
With such a small slate on tap, I’m not getting overexposed to the MLB tonight. Our MLB betting model recommends fading Detroit’s starter, RHP Jack Flaherty. He owns a 33% strikeout rate this year (95th percentile) but recorded a 22.8% last year (44th percentile). He’ll now face a Toronto Blue Jays team that ranks third in strikeouts taken per game (7.2).
The books are taking action on Flaherty’s total strikeouts at 5.5. The best price for the under is the +129 at Caesars, but every other book is charging a much higher price for it. Our MLB betting model recommends placing this bet because we’re too much positive expected value (+EV):
After looking at the rest of the market, it becomes obvious that the +129 at Caesars is inefficient. The same bet clocks in for +118 at FanDuel and is between +115 and -110 at every other public book. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is at -102.
This line renders as a +EV bet due to this market disparity. Our MLB betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds).
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Jack Flaherty Under 5.5 Strikeouts +129 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Jack Flaherty total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson
The Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox will do battle on Thursday night. It’s RHP Mike Clevinger on the bump for the White Sox, which bodes well for the Orioles’ batters. Clevinger’s 5.56 ERA is bad, but his 7.13 xERA is worse. Opposing batters have a .306 xBA against him. Lefties are slashing .259/.286/.481 against him this year with a home run. They slashed .240/.307/.442 against him last year with 11 home runs.
We’re targeting a lefty bat for Thursday’s matchup. Gunnar Henderson stands out as a sharp target — he is slashing .242/.319/.575 against RHPs this year with 12 home runs. Henderson has mashed 16 actual and 14.6 expected home runs, including 15 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Henderson has met Clevinger once before, recording a walk and a strikeout, but I’m betting on him to put a better game together tonight. I’ve got him hitting a dinger (+300 at FanDuel) and tallying multiple bases (-115 at FanDuel) this evening. He hasn’t notched multiple bases in his last two starts but should bounce back soon.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson +300 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Gunnar Henderson home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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