Gross. Yesterday wasn’t fun, as we went 1-2, only cashing a strikeout prop for David Peterson. Tonight’s MLB slate is rough, as it’s a travel day, giving us a mere five games that start after 1 p.m. ET. Still, I’ve dug up two MLB player prop picks — including one home run bet — with help from our MLB betting model. Want to try out our Discord or our MLB betting tools? Keep reading to find out how you can get your first week or month for half-off… just keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, May 30
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Bet Today: Taylor Ward
Today’s home run pick may come as a bit of a surprise. Instead of targeting a big name or fading a pitcher with a terrible ERA, we’re picking a talented (and red-hot) smaller-name player facing a pitcher with a very solid 2.95 ERA in LHP Carlos Rodon. A quick look at Rodon’s expected stats reveals his hot start to the season probably isn’t sustainable.
Despite sporting the fourth-best ERA of today’s probable pitchers (counting Brady Singer, who has since been scratched), Rodon sports the third-worst xERA of the sample. He has also allowed the most actual (9) and expected (9.2) home runs.
Rodon’s struggles stem from solid batting splits from righties like Taylor Ward. He is allowing them to slash .232/.310/.426 with 18 extra-base hits and eight home runs. Ward himself is slashing .400/.500/1.000 against Rodon over a six plate-appearance sample.
We’re backing Ward just as much as we’re fading Rodon. The veteran outfielder is slashing a solid .271/.332/.478 this season that improves to .349/.396/.488 against lefties. The home runs haven’t been there, as just one of his 15 hits went over the fence, but the hits certainly have been.
Let’s back Ward to record multiple bases (+150 at Fanatics) and go yard (+600 at Caesars) for a bit of coin tonight. Those odds are just too long for a guy who has a .289 xBA (91st percentile) and .552 xSLG (95th) along with 11 actual and expected home runs.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Taylor Ward Over 1.5 Total Bases +150 at Fanatics & Home Run +600 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, check out our Taylor Ward total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Jameson Taillon
I usually try to feature only picks from the late slate, but this MLB player prop for the early afternoon’s Cubs-Brewers game is too good to pass up, and if you miss the boat on it, that’s tough. We’re fading Jameson Taillon on the strikeout markets — the Brew Crew may rank a dismal 24th in strikeouts taken per game (8.93), but Taillon’s strikeout rate of 15.2% is in the 10th percentile.
That said, our MLB betting model doesn’t care about strikeout rates or strikeouts taken per game — it cares about beating the market, which we’re doing at the moment. The under available at SuperBook, Fliff and DraftKings is trading with loads of positive expected value (+EV), just look for yourself:
The model wants action here because it estimates the true odds of this bet to be +100, largely due to most other books taking action on this bet between +105 and -116, yet we’re able to buy the +112 or +110 at the aforementioned books. This bet’s OS Rating, a proprietary estimate of value when factoring in both expected value and win rate, clocks in at 7.
Since the start of the MLB season, our tools have identified 297 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 6 or higher two hours before the start of a game. A whopping 175 of those bets have won, yielding a 16.5% ROI. We are 19-6 at SuperBook (55% ROI) and 12-8 at DraftKings (19.3% ROI) through that sample. Don’t believe me? Check out our results and see for yourself.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Strikeouts +112 at SuperBook
For the best price currently available, check out our Jameson Taillon total strikeouts live odds page!
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