After a very profitable weekend, we stumbled back into the week with a losing Monday. However, we’re still net up since I launched The Profit Isaiah — and, until NFL starts, you get your first three months of my picks for just $17.30 (33% off) with code “VIBES”. Before you invest, you can check out my results here. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Tuesday, August 13, with an eye to Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
Need more MLB betting action? Check out our sports betting model or our MLB player prop betting strategy guide!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, August 13
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Yandy Diaz
We’re going with another long shot to go yard today, but I think the price we’re getting at FanDuel is just too good to pass up. I locked in Yandy Diaz to hit a home run at +700 this morning, and, although the price has since dropped somewhat, it’s still worth an investment at the current number. Almost every other book has this bet in the +500 range.
Although Diaz isn’t known as a big-time home run hitter, he is slashing an impressive .337/.377/.529 versus LHPs with three home runs. He’ll rake on LHP Yusei Kikuchi in the Trop tonight, and Kikuchi is allowing RHBs like Diaz to slash .275/.323/.441 with 16 home runs.
Kikuchi has been more beatable than you may think. His .251 xBA (39th percentile) and 10.1% barrel rate (12th) demonstrate that batters are hitting reasonably well against him, especially for power. Although Kikuchi has allowed only 17 home runs on the year, he has coughed up 19 xHR and 18 xHR in the Trop.
Let’s target Diaz to go yard — or to at least record multiple bases. He’s trading at +115 at FanDuel for multiple bags, which is far too generous for a leadoff guy with a .275 xBA (84th) and .417 xSLG (57th) who clearly hits well against LHPs.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Yandy Diaz +680 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Yandy Diaz home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Hunter Greene
The St. Louis Cardinals are in Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds, and the Reds will turn to RHP Hunter Greene tonight. While Greene has been effective this year, sporting a 27.6% strikeout rate (83rd percentile), the Cardinals may prove to be more of a challenge than some realize.
Since the All-Star Break, St. Louis ranks seventh in strikeout rate versus RHPs (19.4%). It’s a meaningful improvement since they ranked 19th (23.4%) beforehand. Further, from the trade deadline onward, St. Louis ranks an even better fourth in the metric (18.3%).
Anyway, those are my quick projection-based reasons for taking this line. I have some market-based reasons, too. If you don’t know what market-based betting is, read our guide to sports betting strategy. Greene’s odds of staying under 6.5 strikeouts at BetMGM are beating the market, revealing some positive expected value (+EV):
To find +EV, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from every book. Once that’s done, it generates a breakeven price for each bet called “true odds.” With that number, we can estimate the expected value of every wager.
Greene’s true odds of staying under 6.5 total strikeouts clock in at +104, which edges out +110 at BetMGM. Edges like this one won’t transform your bankroll in one night, but they can do so over the long term.
How much of a profit can you expect to make from tailing our +EV bets? Just check out our results page. As of today, our model has dug up 4,411 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 2 or higher this season. A very nice 2,500 of those bets won, generating a 10.7% ROI for those who tailed.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Hunter Green Under 6.5 Strikeouts +110 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Hunter Greene total strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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