Yesterday’s article went 1-1, cashing an under for Yusei Kikuchi but losing an over for Tyler O’Neill. I’m a much bigger fan of tonight’s slate than I was last night’s and, so I’ve cooked up a number of plays this evening. Until the NFL regular season returns, you can get The Profit Isaiah, which includes all my picks for every sport and my premium Discord, for $17.30 per month (33% off your first three months!) with code “VIBES”. You can find the results of all tracked bets here. Without further ado, let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Tuesday, August 20. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, August 20
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez
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We’re sticking with a player in this Red Sox-Astros series again today, but this time, we’re turning to LHB Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez is destroying the ball again this season, just as his .301 xBA (97th percentile) and .593 xSLG (98th) suggest.
Alvarez is at his home park for this one. While he has played better on the road, he has still mashed 25 xHR at Minute Maid Park over 118 games this year, good for over one every five starts.
A large part of this pick comes down to the matchup. Alvarez will take on RHP Nick Pivetta, a three true outcomes pitcher. He is coughing up a brutal 1.9 xHR/9 this year. Pivetta has coughed up multiple home runs in his last four starts.
Although he has held LHBs to a tight .196/.256/.385 slash line, that includes nine of his 21 home runs allowed. He allowed LHBs to slash .225/.288/.509 with 16 of his 23 home runs allowed last season.
Once Pivetta exits, Alvarez gets a Red Sox bullpen that ranks 27th in both hits allowed (479) and home runs allowed (63). Even if he can’t take Pivetta the distance, he’ll have more quality chances.
Alvarez’s home run odds are +280 (26.3%) at Fanatics, which is slightly higher than his rate of 0.21 xHR per game. However, the matchup with Pivetta makes up for it somewhat, as does the +200 odds surge at DraftKings. That will let us get Alvarez at +460 (17.9%), which is crushing the line we’d otherwise have to buy. I’ve also got Alvarez getting mutliple bases tonight (+102 at BetRivers).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez +280 at Fanatics or +460 Boosted at DraftKings
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MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Erick Fedde
We’ll turn to tonight’s battle between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals for our final free MLB player prop pick today. I’ve got another bet in this game as today’s free play, but here, we’ll look to St. Louis’ starter, RHP Erick Fedde. Fedde, a trade deadline acquisition, will get to make some noise against a team he struck out eight times earlier in the year.
Milwaukee takes more strikeouts than you may realize. The Brewers rank 22nd in strikeouts taken per game (8.8), and, since the All-Star Break, they rank fifth worst in strikeout rate versus RHPs (25%). Since the trade deadline, their strikeout rate has ticked up slightly to 25.2%.
Fedde isn’t the best strikeout pitcher, but he should punch the Brew Crew out a few times tonight. His 21.1% strikeout rate (39th percentile) and 7.8 K/9 aren’t anything to write home about. However, with the Brewers striking out 27.7% of the time against RHPs over the last week, I’m optimistic.
Let’s look at how Fedde’s strikeout odds have moved using our sports betting research tools:
Most places opened the bidding on the over 4.5 between –125 and -135. That number has been getting bid down over the course of the day, entering the -140 to -150 range at BetMGM, DraftKings and Caesars.
Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over 4.5 trading at a stingy -157 after it opened at -130. This suggests sharp money has come in on Fedde’s over.
Meanwhile, after opening at -130, FanDuel briefly raised the price to -140 before pivoting back to the original number. This makes Fedde’s over stand out from a market-based sports betting strategy standpoint, not just a projections-based one.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Erick Fedde Over 4.5 Strikeouts -130 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Erick Fedde total strikeouts live odds page!
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