We feasted yesterday, cashing Ketel Marte to record over 1.5 total bases and to hit a home run — and he delivered on the first pitch of the first at-bat of the first inning! Talk about a sweat-free bet. Can we run it back today? I think so. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Tuesday, August 6, with an eye to Dinger Tuesday. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, August 6
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Francisco Lindor
The New York Mets are in Coors Field today, which is always a boon for batters. But importantly, it’s LHP Kyle Freeland taking the bump for the Rockies today, who has allowed 1.4 xHR/9 on the year (and 1.5 xHR/9 in Coors Field). Freeland’s .292 xBA (3rd percentile) and 5.8% walk rate (83rd) make him a phenomenal target for MLB player prop bettors.
Freeland’s biggest struggles have come against RHBs, as they are slashing .306/.345/.509 with nine home runs over 216 at-bats. Last year, RHBs slashed .311/.355/.545 with 26 home runs over 488 at-bats. This should benefit Francisco Lindor immensely.
Lindor, a switch-hitter, is slashing .264/.319/.536 with eight home runs in 125 at-bats versus LHPs. He has another 10 doubles against them. If Lindor played every game in Coors this year, he’d have 26 home runs as opposed to his actual total of 22.
Aside from the stadium, we’re also benefiting from the weather. The forecast calls for 11.5 mph winds blowing out through RCF, so even if Lindor can’t pop as a RHB versus Freeland, he might be able to do so more easily as a LHB versus a RHP who comes out of the bullpen.
Colorado’s bullpen ranks 17th in home runs allowed (50) and 30th in hits allowed (456). Let’s back Lindor for multiple bases (-159 at BetRivers) and a home run (+310 at FanDuel).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Francisco Lindor +310 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Francisco Lindor home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Luis Gil
The New York Yankees will host the Los Angeles Angels tonight, and it’s RHP Luis Gil on the bump for them today. He has been exceptional this year, boasting a 3.20 ERA, 3.36 xERA (75th percentile) and 28.5% strikeout rate (86th). However, it’s possible that the betting markets are overrating him by just a squeeze in what’s perceived as an easy matchup.
The Angels may not be good at much, but they’re above-average at avoiding strikeouts. L.A. ranks 14th in strikeouts taken per game this year (8.3) and seventh in strikeouts taken per game on the road (8.1). The Angles rank 17th in strikeout rate versus RHPs this year (23.1%) and 15th since June 1st (22.4%).
Those are my projections-based notes for this wager — we’re also getting value here from taking a market-based approach. If you don’t know what that means, read our guide to sports betting strategy. Gil will cost you -102 to stay under 6.5 strikeouts at one book but is between -105 and -130 everywhere else. We’re scoring more than enough positive expected value (+EV) here to warrant a wager:
To find +EV, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from across the market. It then calculates the breakeven price for each wager, which we call “true odds.” With that number, we can estimate how much expected value we’re getting.
In this case, the model estimates Gil’s true odds of staying under 6.5 total strikeouts are -107, giving us an edge relative to the number available at FanDuel. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable.
Wondering how profitable? Check out our results page: Our model had identified 4,258 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 2 at any time this year. Of those, 2,417 were winners, producing a 10.7% ROI for bettors who tailed!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Luis Gil Under 6.5 Strikeouts -102 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Luis Gil total strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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