Let’s go — although yesterday’s article split 1-1, cashing Vinnie Pasquantino’s total bases (but not getting a home run) and losing Jose Quintana’s strikeouts, the full card went 5-4-1 (+3.3U). With FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday on tap, I’ll have a pretty big card, and you can find all my action on our expert picks page, which you can access for 50% off with code “POSITIVE” at checkout. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Tuesday, July 30. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, July 30
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Rafael Devers
The Boston Red Sox are at home against the Seattle Mariners tonight, and it’s RHP Luis Castillo taking the bump for the M’s tonight. Castillo has coughed up 15.9 xHR on the year but only 13 at Fenway Park. However, there are 15 mph winds blowing out at Fenway tonight, which should more than make up the difference of the park’s dimensions.
Castillo’s splits point to the right way to attack him tonight. The veteran RHP is allowing LHBs to slash .273/.337/.467 with 10 home runs. This benefits no one more than Rafael Devers, who is slashing .336/.424/.714 against RHPs. In a nine at-bat sample against Castillo, he is slashing .333/.333/.778 with a home run.
Devers is a great target for more than just his splits. He sports a .289 xBA (92nd percentile) and .565 xSLG (96th). He has mashed 23 actual and 21.5 expected home runs this season. While only 21 of those would’ve counted at Fenway Park, again, the wind should help him out. He is averaging 0.23 home runs per game, giving him raw odds of +333 to go yard.
Let’s back Devers to go yard (+340 at FanDuel) and tally multiple bases (-105 at BetMGM). Even if he can’t pop against Castillo, the Seattle bullpen is more beatable than some realize. Playing at T-Mobile Park half the time no doubt skews their actual stats — the Mariners’ team SLG (.363) ranks first while their team xSLG (.392) ranks fifth.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Rafael Devers +340 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Rafael Devers home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Luis Castillo
We’re doubling down on tonight’s Red Sox game by fading RHP Luis Castillo on the strikeout markets. While the Red Sox have not been good at avoiding Ks this season, as they rank a dismal 28th in strikeouts taken per game (9.7), this are starting to improve. Since June 1st, Boston ranks 14th in strikeout rate versus RHPs (22.1%). Since the All-Star Break, Boston ranks ninth (20.6%).
The wind and Castillo’s struggles versus lefty batters both suggest that the 31-year-old veteran could get pulled early. We probably need that to be the case, as Castillo’s 23.7% strikeout rate (60th percentile) and 8.7 K/9 point to his strikeout prop total of 5.5 as somewhat low. However, he’s on the road for this one, which brings his K/9 down from 8.7 to 7.9. He goes from playing in the best stadium for strikeouts (T-Mobile) to the 20th (Fenway).
But those are just my projection-based notes — we’re also scoring some edge here by taking a market-based approach, too. If you don’t know what that means, read our guide to sports betting strategy. Castillo is trading at -130 to stay under 5.5 strikeouts at FanDuel, but he’ll cost you between -145 and -175 everywhere else. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one at -154. These factors all point to considerable positive expected value (+EV):
When calculating +EV, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from across the market. It then calculates the breakeven price for each wager, which we call “true odds.” After that, we can estimate how much expected value we’re getting.
In this case, the model is telling us that Castillo’s true odds of staying under 5.5 total strikeouts are -134, which is obviously beating the line at FanDuel, albeit marginally. Still, our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable.
If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page: At this point in the season, our model had identified 1,968 total strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 1 or higher and at least two hours before game start. Of those bets, 1,105 were winners, yielding those who tailed for the suggested amount a 10.3% ROI!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Luis Castillo Under 5.5 Strikeouts -130 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Luis Castillo total strikeouts live odds page!
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