Oof. Sure, we cashed our Yilber Diaz bet yesterday, but we lost our Josh Naylor total bases and home run props, and my full card was not good. After losing several tickets despite getting closing line value (CLV), let’s see if Lady Luck smiles upon us this Dinger Tuesday. As always, you can find my full card on Discord and our expert picks page. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Tuesday, July 9, and for more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, July 9
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Juan Soto
Look, I get it. Juan Soto hasn’t been the beast he was to start the season. He is slashing a miserable .182/.333/.364 in July with one lonely home run. But even amid this slump, Soto is still slashing .294/.430/.554 on the year with 21 home runs. Let’s trust him to right the ship tonight.
Soto remains one of the MLB’s best bats. His .311 xBA (98th percentile) and .632 xSLG (99th) demonstrate this fact. He has mashed 21 actual home runs but has 23.9 expected home runs to his name, including 22 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at the Trop.
He draws a matchup with RHP Ryan Pepiot, who has struggled against opposite-handed batters this year. Pepiot is allowing LHBs to slash .226/.327/.436 with 14 extra-base hits and six home runs. Soto has four plate appearances against Pepiot and recorded one walk, one base hit and one home run.
We’re getting Soto at too good of a price to pass up. Let’s back him to tally multiple bases (+130 at BetMGM) and to go yard (+360 at FanDuel). With Pepiot allowing 1.3 xHR/9 — and New York’s own Carlos Rodon allowing 1.7 — this is a prime spot to hit for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday. It certainly helps that every other book has Soto’s home run odds at +350 or shorter.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Juan Soto +360 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Juan Soto home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jameson Taillon
The Chicago Cubs are in Charm City tonight for a date with the Baltimore Orioles. They’re turning to RHP Jameson Taillon in this spot, whose 3.60 xERA (64th percentile) is solid. Still, Taillon isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, with his 19.2% strikeout rate this year (30th) and 21.4% strikeout rate last year (34th) not turning many heads.
The Orioles are an efficient team at the plate, ranking 11th in strikeouts taken per game (8) and averaging even fewer at home (7.6). They also rank sixth in strikeout rate versus RHPs like Taillon (20.2%) on the year and seventh (20%) since June 1. Let’s trust them to keep minimizing punchouts tonight.
The market consensus has Taillon’s strikeout prop trading at 4.5, but some books are offering a far better price for the under than others. For instance, you can buy the under 4.5 for only -120 at BetMGM and Hard Rock, but the same bet is trading for -150 at FanDuel and -137 at Caesars. The off-market -120s stand out with loads of positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
In this example, Taillon’s true odds of cashing the under 4.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -128. We’re beating that price BetMGM, Hard Rock and DraftKings. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 873 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 3 or higher with at least two hours until game start. Of those bets, 505 won, good for a 13.7% ROI!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Strikeouts -120 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Jameson Taillon total strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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