Daulton Varsho didn’t deliver for us yesterday, but the 1-1 split (thank you, Carlos Rodon) still yielded a 0.4-unit profit if you used the appropriate unit sizing on the expert picks page. I’m hoping to bounce back on FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Tuesday, June 10. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, June 11
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Bryan Woo
I have nothing but good things to say about RHP Bryan Woo. His 1.80 xERA (99th percentile) is unbelievable for a starting pitcher, and the 24-year-old has a bright career ahead of him. But because his potential is so high, he actually stands out as a sharp fade on tonight’s slate. Woo has yet to go further into a game than six innings this year.
The Mariners have been so conservative with Woo that he has cleared the 80-pitch mark just once in six starts. It’s hard to rack up strikeouts if you’ve got a ceiling of 18 outs, which is what we’ve see thus far. Woo has totaled 24 strikeouts this year, good for only four per appearance.
It doesn’t help that Woo isn’t a strikeout pitcher and that his opponent, the Chicago White Sox, are better than some think at avoiding strikeouts. Woo’s strikeout rate of 20.2% (34th percentile) isn’t great, although it’s also downtick from last year’s 25.1%. The White Sox average 8.5 strikeouts taken per game with a strikeout rate of 23.5% against righties, both of which rank just below the league average.
Woo’s odds of staying under the 6.5 strikeout mark vary from -130 to -145 at most public books. A few, like Hard Rock and SuperBet, have this bet in the -120 to -125 range. With Pinnacle, a sharp book, charging -182 for under 6.5, those lines stand out as sharp ones to target and are rendering with positive expected value (+EV) in our market-based MLB betting model:
The tool estimates a breakeven point for all bets, which we call true odds, by indexing the odds from across the market and adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more. Here, the true odds of Woo to stay under 6.5 strikeouts are estimated to be -139, beating the lines available at Hard Rock, SuperBook and Fliff.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. But how profitable, you ask? You can see for yourself on our results page:
Over a 173-bet sample for total strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 9 or higher two hours before game start, 889 106 bets won, good for a monstrous 22% ROI. The model went 12-3 with such picks at SuperBook (59.5% ROI) and 20-13 at Hard Rock (16.5% ROI).
MLB Player Prop Pick: Bryan Woo Under 6.5 Strikeouts -120 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, check out our Bryan Woo total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani
This pick is a bit of a yawner, so make sure to check out the rest of our experts’ Dinger Tuesday selections on our expert picks page. The Texas Rangers have yet to announce their starting pitcher for tonight, but it’s RHP Dane Dunning’s turn in the rotation, and if he sees any action tonight, that’s a problem. Dunning owns a miserable 5.26 xERA with 10.9 xHR coughed up in just 50.2 innings pitched. If Dunning had played every game in Dodger Stadium, he would’ve coughed up 12 home runs.
But that’s all the speculation we’ll do about Dunning — the Rangers have reportedly considered moving him to the pen. He could work in bulk relief behind an opener. If it’s not Dunning, who could it be? RHP Jon Gray threw a few innings and 37 pitches out of the pen on Saturday, so he might be the guy. In short: I’ve got no idea what the Rangers are cooking.
I do have some ideas about what Shohei Ohtani is cooking, however. The superstar two-way player has mashed 15 actual and 13.3 expected home runs this year, although 16 of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences of Dodger Stadium. Ohtani’s .329 xBA (100th percentile) and .626 xSLG (98th) inspire a ton of confidence regardless of the pitching matchup.
If we see a bad righty like Dunning tonight, Ohtani is slashing .319/.401/.650 with 12 of his home runs against them — but Dunning has held Ohtani without a home run in 21 at-bats. If we see Gray, well, Ohtani has two home runs in 10 at-bats against him. With a steady 9.2 mph wind blowing to right-center field tonight, let’s trust Ohtani to send one into the bleachers — or at least get multiple bases).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani +260 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Shohei Ohtani home run live odds page!
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