Monday went okay, as we cashed Vinnie Pasquantino for multiple bases and a home run, but we lost our Roddery Munoz strikeout under by the hook. On FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday, I’m going to have plenty of home run action, and you can find my full card in the Discord. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Tuesday, June 25. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, June 25
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adley Rutschman
There are two batters I love on the home run markets today at their current price, and Adley Rutschman is one of them. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the Cleveland Guardians tonight, and it’s LHP Logan Allen on the bump for the visitors. Allen has allowed 1.7 xHR/9 and sports a brutal 5.50 xERA (7th percentile) through 75.2 IP.
Rutschman has been lighting up LHPs all season. He sports an incredible .418/.452/.663 slash line against them with 12 extra-base hits and six home runs in 98 at-bats. Meanwhile, Allen is allowing RHBs to slash .292/.365/.546. Rutschman is a switch hitter but will be batting righty here.
Although Rutschman is third on the Orioles in xHRs with just 13.5, I have faith in his ability to put another one over the fence, especially against a pitcher like Allen, and especially with the MLB weather report calling for 9.2 mph winds blowing out, 91-degree temperatures and 30% humidity.
I bought Rutschman to get multiple bases (-105 at DraftKings) and to go yard (+560 at FanDuel). You can probably find a better price for the home run prop elsewhere, but I’m committing to FanDuel for the Dinger Tuesday perks. Allen (1.7 xHR/9) and Baltimore’s LHP Cole Irvin (1.2 xHR/9) are two beatable pitchers for power bats.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adley Rutschman +560 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Adley Rutschman home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Gerrit Cole
RHP Gerrit Cole made his return to the New York Yankees rotation last week with a start against the Baltimore Orioles. He lasted just four innings and threw only 62 pitches. While he did manage to strike out five, a similar pitch count could keep his production in check, and that’s what we’re hoping for here.
Cole takes on the New York Mets this week. The Mets rank 11th in strikeouts taken per game (8) and 12th in strikeout rate versus RHPs (21.2%). The last time Cole faced the Mets, he struck out eight in six innings pitched, but last year’s Mets were in a far worse state than this year’s team.
Cole’s strikeout prop is trading at 5.5, which is fair. The under will cost between +105 and -115 at every public book. However, Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under at -129, suggesting the public books are soft here. With BetMGM hanging a +105, we can get plenty of positive expected value (+EV) at their site:
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
In this example, Cole’s true odds of staying under 5.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -103 (50.7%), a number is beating the price available at the aforementioned books.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 440 bets with an OS Rating of five or higher with at least two hours before game start. A tidy 259 of those bets won, producing a 16.9% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts +105 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Gerrit Cole total strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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