Yesterday’s MLB player props column cashed tickets for Bryan Reynolds, as he recorded over 1.5 total bases and went yard. In fact, he went 5-for-5 at the plate! Tonight, I recommend getting some action on a few other bets, including two home run picks and two bets from our MLB betting model. Want to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You can get your first week or month for 50% off — keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, May 14
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Jose Ramirez
The Cleveland Guardians will visit the Texas Rangers to take on rookie RHP Jack Leiter. He might be a good pitcher one day, but that’s not today. Leiter has coughed up two actual and 2.7 expected home runs in the show so far. Leiter’s bloated 12.91 ERA is bad, but it’s not much better than his similarly abysmal 7.61 xERA. His .318 xBA also isn’t good. As a result, the Guardians are a top target for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday.
We’re backing Jose Ramirez, a switch hitter, against Leiter today. Ramirez is slashing a solid .242/.294/.455 this season, down from the .282/.356/.475 he slashed last year. Neither his .245 xBA (46th percentile) nor his .399 xSLG (50th) are that good. I’m hoping he can recover soon.
But while Ramirez is struggling a bit with contact, he isn’t struggling with power. He has mashed nine actual and 9.8 expected home runs, including 11 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Globe Life Field.
The handedness splits also point to value here. Leiter is allowing RHPs to slash .400/.455/.650 with three extra-base hits and a home run. While Ramirez is slashing only .212/.266/.407 against RHPs this year, those numbers include six home runs. He slashed .302/.382/.481 against them last year with 12 home runs as well.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 at DraftKings & Home Run +450 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Jose Ramirez total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Chris Bassitt
The Toronto Blue Jays will visit the Baltimore Orioles tonight, and they’ll trot out RHP Chris Bassitt against Baltimore’s fifth-best lineup by xwOBA. Bassitt’s 21.3% strikeout rate (44th percentile) is okay, and the 22.5% he recorded last year isn’t much better. The Orioles rank 14th in strikeouts taken per game (8.4), too.
The MLB betting model advises fading Bassitt today — at least on the strikeout market. It does so not because Bassitt is in a great spot projection-wise but because we’re in a fantastic spot relative to the market. It shows that we’re getting loads of positive expected value (+EV) at FanDuel:
We can only buy Imanaga to stay under 4.5 strikeouts for +134 at FanDuel — no other public book comes close. The next-best is the +120 at Fanatics; after that, it’s the +110 to +105 range. Pinnacle, a shapr book, has this one at +106.
The model identifies the under 4.5 as a +EV bet because of that market disparity. It uses the odds from across the sports betting landscape to estimate the breakeven odds (called true odds) for each bet, which, for this wager, are +119.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Chris Bassitt Under 4.5 Total Strikeouts +134 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Chris Bassitt total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Kyle Tucker
My home run betting strategy is simple, and it all starts with me diving into the market. Good bets don’t exist without good numbers, and you need to make sure you’re getting the best price whenever you bet. Fortunately, our MLB +EV betting tools make that easy, and we can tell this is a great deal: Kyle Tucker is trading for odds of +400 at FanDuel. The next-best price is a +330.
There are projection-based reasons to place this bet as well: the Oakland Athletics will start LHP JP Sears, whose 4.20 ERA and 4.65 xERA aren’t great. Worse, Sears has coughed up seven actual and 6.9 expected home runs, including nine batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Houston’s Minute Maid Park. Sears has allowed only one home run to lefty bats this year, but Tucker has hit a pair of dingers against him already.
Remember, it’s FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday: that means if we bet at least $25 on this, we’re getting $5 in bonus bets for every home run hit in this game. There could be plenty hit today — Sears allowed 37.5 expected home runs last year, including 42 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences in Houston. Let’s trust Tucker to get the best of Sears again and hope that some other players do if he doesn’t.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Kyle Tucker +400 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Kyle Tucker home runs live odds page!
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