Although yesterday’s article went 0-2, those who tailed the full card via The Profit Isaiah scored a tidy +1.76U profit. I’m a high-volume bettor and believe strongly in taking that approach as it minimizes the impact of variance. You can sign up for The Profit Isaiah, which includes all my picks for every sport and my premium Discord, for $17.30 per month (33% off your first three months!) with code “VIBES”. You can find the results of all tracked bets here. Without further ado, let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Wednesday, August 21. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, August 21
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Joc Pederson
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It’s not every day that an opportunity like this one presents itself. LHB Joc Pederson will take on RHP Roddery Munoz, who is allowing LHBs like Pederson to slash .291/.376/.674 with 25 extra-base hits and 14 home runs in 141 at-bats.
Munoz, a 24-year-old prospect, owns a brutal 6.55 xERA (1st percentile) and .279 xBA (8th). He is allowing a barrel rate of 13.3% (1st) as well, which is a huge issue against a batter like Pederson.
Munoz’s problem is power, especially at home. He is coughing up a brutal 2.6 xHR/9, which ticks up to 2.7 xHR/9 at his home stadium. Munoz owns a 6.63 ERA and .282 BA allowed here in Miami.
Pederson, meanwhile, sports a .294/.402/.565 slash line versus RHPs with 19 of his 20 home runs. Pederson’s .282 xBA (89th), .522 xSLG (94th) and 14.1% barrel rate (90th) all suggest he should be able to get the best of Munoz today.
We’re in Miami for this one, and their stadium ranks eighth in overall park factors for LHBs. It ranks sixth for doubles, fifth for triples and 15th for home runs. Pederson has mashed 20 xHR at this stadium, good for 0.19 per game.
You’ll find Pederson’s home run odds set to +375 (21%) at BetMGM, which is in line with his per-game home run production. However, the matchup points to value at that price, and things get even more interesting with the +200 odds surge at DraftKings. With that profit boost, we can get Pederson at +570 (14.9%), which kills the line we’d otherwise have to buy. I also advise getting action on Pederson to tally multiple bases tonight (+118 at Caesars).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Joc Pederson +375 at BetMGM or +570 Boosted at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Joc Pederson home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Mitchell Parker
The Colorado Rockies take plenty of strikeouts, and they should take plenty more in tonight’s road matchup against LHP Mitchell Parker. Colorado averages the second-most strikeouts taken per game (9.8) and the most strikeouts taken per game on the road (10.4).
Things only get worse when the Rockies face LHPs. This season, Colorado ranks second worst in strikeout rate versus LHPs (27.2%). Since the All-Star Break, they rank dead last (32.2%). They rank only eighth worst in the month of August (27%), but that’s still high enough for us to target.
Parker comes into this one with a 20% strikeout rate (29th percentile) and an average of 7.6 K/9. That’s been good enough for him to average 4.5 strikeouts per game this season. However, across 22 Colorado batters faced, Parker owns seven strikeouts, or a 31.8% rate. He struck eight Rockies out over six innings earlier this season.
Let’s take a look at the line movement for this prop using our sports betting research tools:
The bidding on the over 5.5 opened at or around -120. Then, early in the morning, the odds crashed into the -145 range at Fanatics, Caesars and other sportsbooks.
Most importantly, Pinnacle, a sharp book, opened at a similar number but is now taking action on the over 5.5 at -157, a far worse price than what’s available at the public books. A market-based sports betting strategy suggests value to exploit on the over — for the right price.
We’re getting that right price at BetMGM. You’ll find the over 5.5 trading for odds of -130 (56.5%), which is edging the odds at Pinnacle by just under five percentage points. I’m trusting Parker on this one for 1.5 units.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Mitchell Parker Over 5.5 Strikeouts -130 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Mitchell Parker total strikeouts live odds page!
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