Although yesterday’s article went an awful 0-2, the full card available on Discord and our expert picks page still profited two units, largely thanks to winning home run tickets for Bryan Reynolds and Michael Busch. Still, I want to bounce back with these free article plays. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Wednesday, July 10, and for more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
Need more MLB betting action? Check out our MLB betting model or our guide to MLB player prop betting!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, July 10
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adley Rutschman
Gusty winds are in the forecast at several MLB stadiums today, including Camden Yards, where they’re expected to blow 18 mph to left-center field. It’s Shota Imanaga on the mound for the Cubs, and while he started the season in excellent form, the rookie has now allowed five home runs over his last three starts. Let’s target Adley Rutschman in this spot.
Imanaga’s regression has dropped his xERA to 3.61 (64th percentile) and his xBA to .249 (43rd). With his 4% walk rate, we’re limiting the chances Rutschman gets on base via a free pass, costing us a chance at a total base.
The handedness splits are a big part of why we’re going with Rutschman over, say, Gunnar Henderson. Imanaga is allowing RHBs to slash .243/.278/.391 with 22 extra-base hits and 10 home runs. Likewise, Rutschman is slashing .400/.446/.645 versus LHPs with seven home runs.
In addition to that dominant slash line versus southpaws, Rutschman has a .273 xBA (78th percentile) and .449 xSLG (67th). There’s just too much value to pass up — I’m betting on him to hit a home run (+600 at BetMGM) and tally multiple bases (+105 at BetMGM).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adley Rutschman +600 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Adley Rutschman home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Bryce Miller
The Seattle Mariners will trot out RHP Bryce Miller for tonight’s game against the San Diego Padres. Miller’s 4.27 xERA (36th percentile) and .243 xBA (50th) are shaky. He has benefited much his home park, as he owns a 2.10 ERA at home but a 6.28 ERA on the road, so we’re getting him in a beatable spot, too. Let’s fade him on the strikeout markets.
It helps that the Padres are one of the hardest teams to punch out. They lead the MLB in strikeouts taken per game (6.8). They also lead the MLB in strikeout rate versus RHPs at 18.4%, which is an even more impressive 17.3% since the team acquired Luis Arraez.
Miller’s strikeout prop is trading at 3.5 across the board, but the odds do vary. You’ll find a +105 at ESPN BET and a -125 at Hard Rock, with most books at +100 or shorter. As a result, we’re able to get some slight positive expected value (+EV) with the +105:
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
Here, Miller’s true odds of staying under the 3.5 total strikeout mark are estimated to be +100, a line we’re beating on ESPN BET. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 1,857 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 1 or higher with at least two hours until game start. Of those bets, 1,041 won, netting those who tailed an 9.7% ROI!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Bryce Miller Under 3.5 Strikeouts +105 at ESPN BET
For the best price currently available, check out our Bryce Miller total strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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